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This paper introduces a rule for policy selection in the presence of estimation uncertainty, explicitly accounting for estimation risk. The rule belongs to the class of risk-aware rules on the efficient decision frontier, characterized as…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-21 Victor Chernozhukov , Sokbae Lee , Adam M. Rosen , Liyang Sun

We consider a setting where an agent's uncertainty is represented by a set of probability measures, rather than a single measure. Measure-bymeasure updating of such a set of measures upon acquiring new information is well-known to suffer…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2013-02-26 Joseph Y. Halpern , Samantha Leung

A recent goal in the Reinforcement Learning (RL) framework is to choose a sequence of actions or a policy to maximize the reward collected or minimize the regret incurred in a finite time horizon. For several RL problems in operation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-08-18 K J Prabuchandran , Tejas Bodas , Theja Tulabandhula

In reinforcement learning, specifying reward functions that capture the intended task can be very challenging. Reward learning aims to address this issue by learning the reward function. However, a learned reward model may have a low error…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-09 Lukas Fluri , Leon Lang , Alessandro Abate , Patrick Forré , David Krueger , Joar Skalse

The specification of aMarkov decision process (MDP) can be difficult. Reward function specification is especially problematic; in practice, it is often cognitively complex and time-consuming for users to precisely specify rewards. This work…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-05-14 Kevin Regan , Craig Boutilier

Subsidies are commonly used to encourage behaviors that can lead to short- or long-term benefits. Typical examples include subsidized job training programs and provisions of preventive health products, in which both behavioral responses and…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-03-18 Yu-Chang Chen , Haitian Xie

We consider the batch (off-line) policy learning problem in the infinite horizon Markov Decision Process. Motivated by mobile health applications, we focus on learning a policy that maximizes the long-term average reward. We propose a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-09-20 Peng Liao , Zhengling Qi , Runzhe Wan , Predrag Klasnja , Susan Murphy

Optimal treatment regimes are personalized policies for making a treatment decision based on subject characteristics, with the policy chosen to maximize some value. It is common to aim to maximize the mean outcome in the population, via a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-28 Liu Leqi , Edward H. Kennedy

Empirical researchers and decision-makers spanning various domains frequently seek profound insights into the long-term impacts of interventions. While the significance of long-term outcomes is undeniable, an overemphasis on them may…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Peng Wu , Ziyu Shen , Feng Xie , Zhongyao Wang , Chunchen Liu , Yan Zeng

We study agents acting in an unknown environment where the agent's goal is to find a robust policy. We consider robust policies as policies that achieve high cumulative rewards for all possible environments. To this end, we consider agents…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Raghav Bongole , Amaury Gouverneur , Borja Rodríguez-Gálvez , Tobias J. Oechtering , Mikael Skoglund

This paper studies identification and inference of the welfare gain that results from switching from one policy (such as the status quo policy) to another policy. The welfare gain is not point identified in general when data are obtained…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-07-12 Undral Byambadalai

This guide provides a reference for high-probability regret bounds in empirical risk minimization (ERM). The presentation is modular: we begin with intuition and general proof strategies, then state broadly applicable guarantees under…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Lars van der Laan

We study sequential experiments where sampling is costly and a decision-maker aims to determine the best treatment for full scale implementation by (1) adaptively allocating units between two possible treatments, and (2) stopping the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-06 Karun Adusumilli

Machine Learning (ML) increasingly informs the allocation of opportunities to individuals and communities in areas such as lending, education, employment, and beyond. Such decisions often impact their subjects' future characteristics and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 David Lindner , Hoda Heidari , Andreas Krause

This study examines the problem of determining whether to treat individuals based on observed covariates. The most common decision rule is the conditional empirical success (CES) rule proposed by Manski (2004), which assigns individuals to…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-08 Takuya Ishihara , Daisuke Kurisu

We consider an online model for recommendation systems, with each user being recommended an item at each time-step and providing 'like' or 'dislike' feedback. Each user may be recommended a given item at most once. A latent variable model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-05-08 Guy Bresler , Mina Karzand

This study considers the treatment choice problem when outcome variables are binary. We focus on statistical treatment rules that plug in fitted values based on nonparametric kernel regression and show that optimizing two parameters enables…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-19 Takuya Ishihara

We extend the notion of regret with a welfarist perspective. Focussing on the classic multi-armed bandit (MAB) framework, the current work quantifies the performance of bandit algorithms by applying a fundamental welfare function, namely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-30 Siddharth Barman , Arindam Khan , Arnab Maiti , Ayush Sawarni

This study introduces an agent-based model to study how regret, uncertainty, and social norms interact to shape vaccination behavior during epidemics. The model integrates three behavioral mechanisms, anticipated regret, evolving norms, and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-11-18 Christos Charalambous

In recent years, significant attention has been directed towards learning average-reward Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). However, existing algorithms either suffer from sub-optimal regret guarantees or computational inefficiencies. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-04 Victor Boone , Zihan Zhang