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Learning optimal policies from historical data enables personalization in a wide variety of applications including healthcare, digital recommendations, and online education. The growing policy learning literature focuses on settings where…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-17 Ruohan Zhan , Zhimei Ren , Susan Athey , Zhengyuan Zhou

Integrated assessment models have become the primary tools for comparing climate policies that seek to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Policy comparisons have often been performed by considering a planner who seeks to make optimal…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-24 Stephen J. DeCanio , Charles F. Manski , Alan H. Sanstad

This paper proposes a novel method to estimate individualised treatment assignment rules. The method is designed to find rules that are stochastic, reflecting uncertainty in estimation of an assignment rule and about its welfare…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-22 Toru Kitagawa , Hugo Lopez , Jeff Rowley

Policy optimization methods are popular reinforcement learning algorithms in practice. Recent works have built theoretical foundation for them by proving $\sqrt{T}$ regret bounds even when the losses are adversarial. Such bounds are tight…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-21 Christoph Dann , Chen-Yu Wei , Julian Zimmert

This paper studies sample-size design for finite-population test-and-roll experiments, where a decision-maker first conducts an experiment on $m$ units and then assigns the remaining $N-m$ units to the treatment that performs better in the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-05 Kentaro Kawato , Shosei Sakaguchi

Machine learning is increasingly used to select which individuals receive limited-resource interventions in domains such as human services, education, development, and more. However, it is often not apparent what the right quantity is for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-20 Vibhhu Sharma , Bryan Wilder

A decision maker typically (i) incorporates training data to learn about the relative effectiveness of treatments, and (ii) chooses an implementation mechanism that implies an ``optimal'' predicted outcome distribution according to some…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-29 Anders Bredahl Kock , David Preinerstorfer

Recent literature on policy learning has primarily focused on regret bounds of the learned policy. We provide a new perspective by developing a unified semiparametric efficiency framework for policy learning, allowing for general treatments…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-10 Yue Fang , Geert Ridder , Haitian Xie

We study online learning in \emph{constrained MDPs} (CMDPs), focusing on the goal of attaining sublinear strong regret and strong cumulative constraint violation. Differently from their standard (weak) counterparts, these metrics do not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-04 Francesco Emanuele Stradi , Matteo Castiglioni , Alberto Marchesi , Nicola Gatti

The relationship of policy choice by majority voting and by maximization of utilitarian welfare has long been discussed. I consider choice between a status quo and a proposed policy when persons have interpersonally comparable cardinal…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-12-30 Charles F. Manski

Internet providers often offer data plans that, for each user's monthly billing cycle, guarantee a fixed amount of data at high rates until a byte threshold is reached, at which point the user's data rate is throttled to a lower rate for…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-04-28 Niloofar Bayat , Vishal Misra , Dan Rubenstein

This work theoretically studies a ubiquitous reinforcement learning policy for controlling the canonical model of continuous-time stochastic linear-quadratic systems. We show that randomized certainty equivalent policy addresses the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-23 Mohamad Kazem Shirani Faradonbeh

State-of-the-art efficient model-based Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms typically act by iteratively solving empirical models, i.e., by performing \emph{full-planning} on Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) built by the gathered…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-01 Yonathan Efroni , Nadav Merlis , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh , Shie Mannor

We study mechanism design problems in the {\em ordinal setting} wherein the preferences of agents are described by orderings over outcomes, as opposed to specific numerical values associated with them. This setting is relevant when agents…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2014-03-11 Deeparnab Chakrabarty , Chaitanya Swamy

I propose a framework for learning individualized policy rules in observational data settings characterized by endogenous treatment selection and the availability of an instrumental variable. I introduce encouragement rules that manipulate…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-21 Yan Liu

In reinforcement learning, experience replay stores past samples for further reuse. Prioritized sampling is a promising technique to better utilize these samples. Previous criteria of prioritization include TD error, recentness and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-10 Xu-Hui Liu , Zhenghai Xue , Jing-Cheng Pang , Shengyi Jiang , Feng Xu , Yang Yu

We consider the setting of iterative learning control, or model-based policy learning in the presence of uncertain, time-varying dynamics. In this setting, we propose a new performance metric, planning regret, which replaces the standard…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-01 Naman Agarwal , Elad Hazan , Anirudha Majumdar , Karan Singh

We apply classical statistical decision theory to a large class of treatment choice problems with partial identification. We show that, in a general class of problems with Gaussian likelihood, all decision rules are admissible; it is…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-06-24 José Luis Montiel Olea , Chen Qiu , Jörg Stoye

One way to make decisions under uncertainty is to select an optimal option from a possible range of options, by maximizing the expected utilities derived from a probability model. However, under severe uncertainty, identifying precise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-03-06 Nawapon Nakharutai , Sébastien Destercke , Matthias C. M. Troffaes

This paper studies experimental designs for estimation and inference on policies with spillover effects. Units are organized into a finite number of large clusters and interact in unknown ways within each cluster. First, we introduce a…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-06 Davide Viviano , Jess Rudder