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We consider statistical inference in the density estimation model using a tree-based Bayesian approach, with Optional P\'olya trees as prior distribution. We derive near-optimal convergence rates for corresponding posterior distributions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-12 Ismaël Castillo , Thibault Randrianarisoa

Despite exceptional predictive performance of Deep sequence models (DSMs), the main concern of their deployment centers around the lack of uncertainty awareness. In contrast, probabilistic models quantify the uncertainty associated with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Wenlong Chen

Rate variation among the sites of a molecular sequence is commonly found in applications of phylogenetic inference. Several approaches exist to account for this feature but they do not usually enable the investigator to pinpoint the sites…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2013-05-23 Elisa Loza-Reyes , Merrilee Hurn , Tony Robinson

Estimation of permutation entropy (PE) using Bayesian statistical methods is presented for systems where the ordinal pattern sampling follows an independent, multinomial distribution. It is demonstrated that the PE posterior distribution is…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2022-02-09 Douglas J. Little , Joshua P. Toomey , Deb M. Kane

This talk will review a little over a decade's research on applying certain stochastic models to biological sequence analysis. The models themselves have a longer history, going back over 30 years, although many novel variants have arisen…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 T. P. Speed

Compartmentalization of biochemical processes underlies all biological systems, from the organelle to the tissue scale. Theoretical models to study the interplay between noisy reaction dynamics and compartmentalization are sparse, and…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-06-08 Lorenzo Duso , Christoph Zechner

The assessment of diversity and similarity is relevant in monitoring the status of ecosystems. The respective indicators are based on the taxonomic composition of biological communities of interest, currently estimated through the…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-12 Fabio Divino , Johanna Ärje , Antti Penttinen , Kristian Meissner , Salme Kärkkäinen

An autocatalytic pattern matching polymer system is studied as an abstract model for chemical ecosystem evolution. Highly ordered populations with particular sequence patterns appear spontaneously out of a vast number of possible states.…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-17 Shinpei Tanaka , Harold Fellermann , Steen Rasmussen

We present a new method to propagate lower bounds on conditional probability distributions in conventional Bayesian networks. Our method guarantees to provide outer approximations of the exact lower bounds. A key advantage is that we can…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-05-14 Daniel Andrade , Bernhard Sick

Biological networks are a very convenient modelling and visualisation tool to discover knowledge from modern high-throughput genomics and postgenomics data sets. Indeed, biological entities are not isolated, but are components of complex…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2018-05-07 Alex White , Matthieu Vignes

A Bayesian network is a widely used probabilistic graphical model with applications in knowledge discovery and prediction. Learning a Bayesian network (BN) from data can be cast as an optimization problem using the well-known…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-11-14 Zhenyu A. Liao , Charupriya Sharma , James Cussens , Peter van Beek

New experimental methods make it possible to measure the expression levels of many genes, simultaneously, in snapshots from thousands or even millions of individual cells. Current approaches to analyze these experiments involve clustering…

Here we introduce a new design framework for synthetic biology that exploits the advantages of Bayesian model selection. We will argue that the difference between inference and design is that in the former we try to reconstruct the system…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2015-05-27 Chris Barnes , Daniel Silk , Xia Sheng , Michael P. H. Stumpf

Given samples from a distribution, how many new elements should we expect to find if we continue sampling this distribution? This is an important and actively studied problem, with many applications ranging from unseen species estimation to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-07-14 Aditi Raghunathan , Greg Valiant , James Zou

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are useful tools giving a natural and compact representation of joint probability distributions. In many applications one needs to learn a Bayesian Network (BN) from data. In this context, it is important to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Or Zuk , Shiri Margel , Eytan Domany

Density dependence is important in the ecology and evolution of microbial and cancer cells. Typically, we can only measure net growth rates, but the underlying density-dependent mechanisms that give rise to the observed dynamics can…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-06-04 Linh Huynh , Jacob G. Scott , Peter J. Thomas

We want to select the best systems out of a given set of systems (or rank them) with respect to their expected performance. The systems allow random observations only and we assume that the joint observation of the systems has a…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-23 Björn Görder , Michael Kolonko

Inferring models, predicting the future, and estimating the entropy rate of discrete-time, discrete-event processes is well-worn ground. However, a much broader class of discrete-event processes operates in continuous-time. Here, we provide…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-05-11 S. E. Marzen , J. P. Crutchfield

A Bayesian nonparametric method for unimodal densities on the real line is provided by considering a class of species sampling mixture models containing random densities that are unimodal and not necessarily symmetric. This class of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Man-Wai Ho

Given i.i.d. data from an unknown distribution, we consider the problem of predicting future items. An adaptive way to estimate the probability density is to recursively subdivide the domain to an appropriate data-dependent granularity. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Marcus Hutter