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Empowering large language models to accurately express confidence in their answers is essential for trustworthy decision-making. Previous confidence elicitation methods, which primarily rely on white-box access to internal model information…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Miao Xiong , Zhiyuan Hu , Xinyang Lu , Yifei Li , Jie Fu , Junxian He , Bryan Hooi

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in high-stakes settings, where overconfident responses can mislead users. Reliable confidence estimation has been shown to enhance trust and task accuracy. Yet existing methods face…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Linwei Tao , Yi-Fan Yeh , Bo Kai , Minjing Dong , Tao Huang , Tom A. Lamb , Jialin Yu , Philip H. S. Torr , Chang Xu

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance on several tasks and are increasingly deployed in real-world applications. However, especially in high-stakes settings, it becomes vital to know when the output of an LLM…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-23 Yu-Neng Chuang , Prathusha Kameswara Sarma , Parikshit Gopalan , John Boccio , Sara Bolouki , Xia Hu , Helen Zhou

A safe and trustworthy use of Large Language Models (LLMs) requires an accurate expression of confidence in their answers. We propose a novel Reinforcement Learning approach that allows to directly fine-tune LLMs to express calibrated…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-03-03 David Bani-Harouni , Chantal Pellegrini , Paul Stangel , Ege Özsoy , Kamilia Zaripova , Nassir Navab , Matthias Keicher

Large Language Models (LLMs) have acquired ubiquitous attention for their performances across diverse domains. Our study here searches through LLMs' cognitive abilities and confidence dynamics. We dive deep into understanding the alignment…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-09-29 Aniket Kumar Singh , Suman Devkota , Bishal Lamichhane , Uttam Dhakal , Chandra Dhakal

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in information-seeking and decision-making tasks. Despite their broad utility, LLMs tend to generate information that conflicts with real-world facts, and their persuasive style can…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-19 Arslan Chaudhry , Sridhar Thiagarajan , Dilan Gorur

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across a wide range of tasks in various domains. Despite their impressive performance, they can be unreliable due to factual errors in their generations. Assessing their…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-26 Jiahui Geng , Fengyu Cai , Yuxia Wang , Heinz Koeppl , Preslav Nakov , Iryna Gurevych

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit strikingly conflicting behaviors: they can appear steadfastly overconfident in their initial answers whilst at the same time being prone to excessive doubt when challenged. To investigate this apparent…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown great potential in Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. However, recent literature reveals that LLMs generate nonfactual responses intermittently, which impedes the LLMs' reliability for further…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-22 Yukun Zhao , Lingyong Yan , Weiwei Sun , Guoliang Xing , Chong Meng , Shuaiqiang Wang , Zhicong Cheng , Zhaochun Ren , Dawei Yin

Psychology research has shown that humans are poor at estimating their performance on tasks, tending towards underconfidence on easy tasks and overconfidence on difficult tasks. We examine three LLMs, Llama-3-70B-instruct, Claude-3-Sonnet,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Chenjun Xu , Bingbing Wen , Bin Han , Robert Wolfe , Lucy Lu Wang , Bill Howe

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit impressive performance across diverse tasks but often struggle to accurately gauge their knowledge boundaries, leading to confident yet incorrect responses. This paper explores leveraging LLMs' internal…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-06-26 Shiyu Ni , Keping Bi , Jiafeng Guo , Lulu Yu , Baolong Bi , Xueqi Cheng

Self-detection for Large Language Models (LLMs) seeks to evaluate the trustworthiness of the LLM's output by leveraging its own capabilities, thereby alleviating the issue of output hallucination. However, existing self-detection approaches…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-30 Moxin Li , Wenjie Wang , Fuli Feng , Fengbin Zhu , Qifan Wang , Tat-Seng Chua

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, with different models excelling in distinct domains and specific abilities. Effectively combining the predictions of multiple LLMs is crucial for…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-01 Jizhou Guo

Large Language Models (LLMs) generate responses to questions; however, their effectiveness is often hindered by sub-optimal quality of answers and occasional failures to provide accurate responses to questions. To address these challenges,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Liang Zhang , Katherine Jijo , Spurthi Setty , Eden Chung , Fatima Javid , Natan Vidra , Tommy Clifford

Large language models (LLMs) have been found to produce hallucinations when the question exceeds their internal knowledge boundaries. A reliable model should have a clear perception of its knowledge boundaries, providing correct answers…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-08-20 Shiyu Ni , Keping Bi , Lulu Yu , Jiafeng Guo

There is a growing literature on reasoning by large language models (LLMs), but the discussion on the uncertainty in their responses is still lacking. Our aim is to assess the extent of confidence that LLMs have in their answers and how it…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Yudi Pawitan , Chris Holmes

Hallucination remains a major challenge for the safe and trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs) in factual content generation. Prior work has explored confidence estimation as an effective approach to hallucination…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Caiqi Zhang , Xiaochen Zhu , Chengzu Li , Nigel Collier , Andreas Vlachos

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable self-improvement capabilities, whereby models iteratively revise their outputs through self-generated feedback. While this reflective mechanism has shown promise in enhancing task…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Liangjie Huang , Dawei Li , Huan Liu , Lu Cheng

We investigate the calibration of large language models' (LLMs') confidence across diverse tasks. The results of our preregistered study show that the current crop of LLMs are, like people, too sure they are right: confidence exceeds…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Noam Michael , Daniel BenShushan , Jacob Bien , Don A. Moore

In the deployment of large language models (LLMs), accurate confidence estimation is critical for assessing the credibility of model predictions. However, existing methods often fail to overcome the issue of overconfidence on incorrect…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-02-20 Pei Wang , Yejie Wang , Muxi Diao , Keqing He , Guanting Dong , Weiran Xu
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