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Although Large Language Models (LLMs) perform well in general fields, they exhibit a confidence distortion problem on multi-choice question-answering (MCQA), particularly as the number of answer choices increases. Specifically, on MCQA with…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Zicheng Xu , Guanchu Wang , Guangyao Zheng , Yu-Neng Chuang , Alexander Szalay , Xia Hu , Vladimir Braverman

Large language models (LLMs) often produce confident yet incorrect answers, which can lead to risky failures in real-world applications. We study whether post-training can make a model's self-assessment explicit: when the model is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-15 Junyu Guo , Shangding Gu , Ming Jin , Costas Spanos , Javad Lavaei

Large Language Models (LLMs) tend to be unreliable in the factuality of their answers. To address this problem, NLP researchers have proposed a range of techniques to estimate LLM's confidence over facts. However, due to the lack of a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-28 Matéo Mahaut , Laura Aina , Paula Czarnowska , Momchil Hardalov , Thomas Müller , Lluís Màrquez

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capability in solving mathematical problems. However, existing approaches primarily focus on improving the quality of correct training data, e.g., distilling high-quality…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-02 Zhuoshi Pan , Yu Li , Honglin Lin , Qizhi Pei , Zinan Tang , Wei Wu , Chenlin Ming , H. Vicky Zhao , Conghui He , Lijun Wu

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) is widely used to train large language models (LLMs). However, it is unclear whether LLMs accurately learn the underlying preferences in human feedback data. We coin the term \textit{Learned…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Luke Marks , Amir Abdullah , Clement Neo , Rauno Arike , David Krueger , Philip Torr , Fazl Barez

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit impressive problem-solving skills across many tasks, but they still underperform compared to humans in various downstream applications, such as text-to-SQL. On the BIRD benchmark leaderboard, human…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-21 Zhibo Chu , Zichong Wang , Qitao Qin

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success across a wide range of natural language tasks, but often exhibit overconfidence and generate plausible yet incorrect answers. This overconfidence, especially in models undergone…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-24 Zeguan Xiao , Diyang Dou , Boya Xiong , Yun Chen , Guanhua Chen

The recent success of Large Language Models (LLMs) has catalyzed an increasing interest in their self-correction capabilities. This paper presents a comprehensive investigation into the intrinsic self-correction of LLMs, attempting to…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-14 Loka Li , Zhenhao Chen , Guangyi Chen , Yixuan Zhang , Yusheng Su , Eric Xing , Kun Zhang

Large Language Models (LLMs) increasingly rely on long-form, multi-step reasoning to solve complex tasks such as mathematical problem solving and scientific question answering. Despite strong performance, existing confidence estimation…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Zhenjiang Mao , Anirudhh Venkat , Artem Bisliouk , Akshat Kothiyal , Sindhura Kumbakonam Subramanian , Saithej Singhu , Ivan Ruchkin

While large language models (LLMs) improve performance by explicit reasoning, their responses are often overconfident, even though they include linguistic expressions demonstrating uncertainty. In this work, we identify what linguistic…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-08 Shintaro Ozaki , Wataru Hashimoto , Hidetaka Kamigaito , Katsuhiko Hayashi , Taro Watanabe

Recently, overconfidence in large language models (LLMs) has garnered considerable attention due to its fundamental importance in quantifying the trustworthiness of LLM generation. However, existing approaches prompt the \textit{black box…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-29 Adil Bahaj , Hamed Rahimi , Mohamed Chetouani , Mounir Ghogho

Large Language Models (LLMs) have revolutionized inference across diverse natural language tasks, with larger models performing better but at higher computational costs. We propose a confidence-driven strategy that dynamically selects the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-26 Bo-Wei Chen , Chung-Chi Chen , An-Zi Yen

Large Language Models (LLMs), including ChatGPT and LLaMA, are susceptible to generating hallucinated answers in a confident tone. While efforts to elicit and calibrate confidence scores have proven useful, recent findings show that…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Lihu Chen , Alexandre Perez-Lebel , Fabian M. Suchanek , Gaël Varoquaux

Generative Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across a wide range of tasks. Recent research has introduced Multi-Agent Debate (MAD) systems, which leverage multiple LLMs to simulate human debate and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Zijie Lin , Bryan Hooi

Accurately gauging the confidence level of Large Language Models' (LLMs) predictions is pivotal for their reliable application. However, LLMs are often uncalibrated inherently and elude conventional calibration techniques due to their…

Large Language Models (LLMs) often produce plausible but poorly-calibrated answers, limiting their reliability on reasoning-intensive tasks. We present Reinforcement Learning from Self-Feedback (RLSF), a post-training stage that uses the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-07-30 Carel van Niekerk , Renato Vukovic , Benjamin Matthias Ruppik , Hsien-chin Lin , Milica Gašić

To enhance Large Language Models' (LLMs) reliability, calibration is essential -- the model's assessed confidence scores should align with the actual likelihood of its responses being correct. However, current confidence elicitation methods…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Yukun Huang , Yixin Liu , Raghuveer Thirukovalluru , Arman Cohan , Bhuwan Dhingra

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit probabilistic output characteristics, yet conventional evaluation frameworks rely on deterministic scalar metrics. This study introduces a Bayesian approach for LLM capability assessment that integrates…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-01 Xiao Xiao , Yu Su , Sijing Zhang , Zhang Chen , Yadong Chen , Tian Liu

We posit that large language models (LLMs) should be capable of expressing their intrinsic uncertainty in natural language. For example, if the LLM is equally likely to output two contradicting answers to the same question, then its…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-27 Gal Yona , Roee Aharoni , Mor Geva

Producing trustworthy and reliable Large Language Models (LLMs) has become increasingly important as their usage becomes more widespread. Calibration seeks to achieve this by improving the alignment between the model's confidence and the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Glenn Zhang , Treasure Mayowa , Jason Fan , Yicheng Fu , Aaron Sandoval , Sean O'Brien , Kevin Zhu