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Data assimilation (DA) combines model forecasts and observations to estimate the optimal state of the atmosphere with its uncertainty, providing initial conditions for weather prediction and reanalyses for climate research. Yet, existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Hang Fan , Juan Nathaniel , Yi Xiao , Ce Bian , Fenghua Ling , Ben Fei , Lei Bai , Pierre Gentine

This paper develops a multifidelity method that enables estimation of failure probabilities for expensive-to-evaluate models via information fusion and importance sampling. The presented general fusion method combines multiple probability…

To understand and predict the performance of scientific applications, several analytical and machine learning approaches have been proposed, each having its advantages and disadvantages. In this paper, we propose and validate a hybrid…

Performance · Computer Science 2019-02-27 Huda Ibeid , Siping Meng , Oliver Dobon , Luke Olson , William Gropp

Sparse meteorological forecasting is indispensable for fine-grained weather forecasting and deserves extensive attention. Recent studies have highlighted the potential of spatio-temporal graph convolutional networks (ST-GCNs) in predicting…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-26 Yutong Xiong , Xun Zhu , Ming Wu , Weiqing Li , Fanbin Mo , Chuang Zhang , Bin Zhang

Coastal flooding poses increasing threats to communities worldwide, necessitating accurate and hyper-local inundation forecasting for effective emergency response. However, real-world deployment of forecasting systems is often constrained…

Multi-modal data fusion has recently been shown promise in classification tasks in remote sensing. Optical data and radar data, two important yet intrinsically different data sources, are attracting more and more attention for potential…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-01-08 Jingliang Hu , Danfeng Hong , Xiao Xiang Zhu

Nowadays, weather forecasts are commonly generated by ensemble forecasts based on multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models. However, such forecasts are usually miscalibrated and/or biased, thus require statistical…

Applications · Statistics 2024-12-13 David Jobst

Probability forecasting is common in the geosciences, the finance sector, and elsewhere. It is sometimes the case that one has multiple probability-forecasts for the same target. How is the information in these multiple forecast systems…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-03-02 Sarah Higgins , Hailiang Du , Leonard A. Smith

Estimating spatial extremes from sparse observational networks produces uncertain return level maps, but dense output from physics-based simulation models is often available as a complementary data source. We develop a two-stage frequentist…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-04 Brian N. White , Brian Blanton , Rick Luettich , Richard L. Smith

The North Pacific exhibits patterns of low-frequency variability on the intra-annual to decadal time scales, which manifest themselves in both model data and the observational record, and prediction of such low-frequency modes of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-06-22 Darin Comeau , Zhizhen Zhao , Dimitrios Giannakis , Andrew J. Majda

Quantifying forecast uncertainty is a key aspect of state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction and data assimilation systems. Ensemble-based data assimilation systems incorporate state-dependent uncertainty quantification based on…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-05-17 Maximiliano A. Sacco , Manuel Pulido , Juan J. Ruiz , Pierre Tandeo

Short- or mid-term rainfall forecasting is a major task with several environmental applications such as agricultural management or flood risk monitoring. Existing data-driven approaches, especially deep learning models, have shown…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-01-13 Vincent Bouget , Dominique Béréziat , Julien Brajard , Anastase Charantonis , Arthur Filoche

In this paper we applied data fusion approaches for predicting the final academic performance of university students using multiple-source, multimodal data from blended learning environments. We collected and preprocessed data about…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-03-12 W. Chango , R. Cerezo , C. Romero

In clinical settings, we often face the challenge of building prediction models based on small observational data sets. For example, such a data set might be from a medical center in a multi-center study. Differences between centers might…

To improve the precision of inferences and reduce costs there is considerable interest in combining data from several sources such as sample surveys and administrative data. Appropriate methodology is required to ensure satisfactory…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-21 Dexter Cahoy , Joseph Sedransk

Forecasting Heavy Precipitation Events (HPE) in the Mediterranean is crucial but challenging due to the complexity of the processes involved. In this context, Artificial Intelligence methods have recently proven to be competitive with…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-01 Killian Pujol , Roberta Baggio , Dominique Lambert , Jean-François Muzy , Jean-Baptiste Filippi , Florian Pantillon

In this study, annual runoff is estimated by using a Bayesian geostatistical model for interpolation of hydrological data of different spatial support. That is, streamflow observations from catchments (areal data), and precipitation and…

Applications · Statistics 2021-05-10 Thea Roksvåg , Ingelin Steinsland , Kolbjørn Engeland

Ensemble forecast based on physics-informed models is one of the most widely used forecast algorithms for complex turbulent systems. A major difficulty in such a method is the model error that is ubiquitous in practice. Data-driven machine…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-11-24 Nan Chen , Yingda Li

Meteorological satellite imagery is critical for meteorologists. The data have played an important role in monitoring and analyzing weather and climate changes. However, satellite imagery is a kind of observation data and exists a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-09-26 Fang Huang , Wencong Cheng , PanFeng Wang , ZhiGang Wang , HongHong He

Addressing complex meteorological processes at a fine spatial resolution requires substantial computational resources. To accelerate meteorological simulations, researchers have utilized neural networks to downscale meteorological variables…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-30 Jing Hu , Honghu Zhang , Peng Zheng , Jialin Mu , Xiaomeng Huang , Xi Wu