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The evaluation of climate models is a crucial step in climate studies. It consists of quantifying the resemblance of model outputs to reference data to identify models with superior capacity to replicate specific climate variables. Clearly,…
Change point detection for time series analysis is a difficult and important problem in applied statistics, for which a variety of approaches have been developed in the past several decades. Here, the Wasserstein metric is employed as a…
We analyze and model the stochastic behavior of paleoclimate time series and assess the implications for the coupling of climate variables during the Pleistocene glacial cycles. We examine 800 kyr of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide,…
Phase transitions are a fundamental concept in science describing diverse phenomena ranging from, e.g., the freezing of water to Bose-Einstein condensation. While the concept is well-established in equilibrium, similarly fundamental…
A primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced…
The case for a much warmer climate on the early Earth than now is presented. The oxygen isotope record in sedimentary chert and the compelling case for a near constant isotopic oxygen composition of seawater over geologic time support…
In mean-field theory, i.e. infinite-range interactions, the transition between metastable and unstable states of a thermodynamic system is sharp. The metastable and the unstable states are separated by a spinodal curve. For systems with…
We introduce a novel characterization of phase transitions based on hypothesis testing. In our formulation, a phase transition is defined as the breakdown of statistical indistinguishability under vanishing parameter perturbations in the…
Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…
We provide a stochastic thermodynamic description across scales for $N$ identical units with all-to-all interactions that are driven away from equilibrium by different reservoirs and external forces. We start at the microscopic level with…
We employ the microcanonical inflection-point analysis method, developed for the systematic identification and classification of phase transitions in systems of any size, to study the two-dimensional Ising model at various lattice sizes and…
Understanding the future climate is crucial for informed policy decisions on climate change prevention and mitigation. Earth system models play an important role in predicting future climate, requiring accurate representation of complex…
Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth's climate system where a small change can cause abrupt and potentially irreversible shifts towards a new state. Tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)…
A new database of collisional rate coefficients for transitions between the rotational states of H$_2$O collided with H$_2$ background gas is developed. The goal is to expand over the other existing databases in terms of the rotational…
Interpreting partial information collected from systems subject to noise is a key problem across scientific disciplines. Theoretical frameworks often focus on the dynamics of variables that result from coarse-graining the internal states of…
Many natural systems undergo critical transitions, i.e. sudden shifts from one dynamical regime to another. In the climate system, the atmospheric boundary layer can experience sudden transitions between fully turbulent states and…
Phenological timing -- i.e. the course of annually recurring development stages in nature -- is of particular interest since it can be understood as a proxy for the climate at a specific region; moreover changes in the so called…
A Bayesian multiple change-point model is proposed to analyse violations of air quality standards by pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NO) and carbon monoxide (CO). The model is built on the assumption that the occurrence of…
A systematic study of isotope chains in the rare--earth region is presented. For the chains (144-154)Nd, (146-160)Sm, (148-162)Gd, and (150-166)Dy, energy levels, E2 transition rates, and two--neutron separation energies are described by…
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is a key predictor of climate change. However, it is not very well constrained, either by climate models or by observational data. The reasons for this include strong internal variability and forcing on…