Related papers: Estimating breakpoints between climate states in t…
While one can unequivocally identify past climate transitions, we lack comprehensive knowledge about their underlying mechanisms and timescales. Our study employs a dimensional analysis of benthic stable isotope records to uncover, across…
The Earth's climate has experienced numerous critical transitions during its history, which have often been accompanied by massive and rapid changes in the biosphere. Such transitions are evidenced in various proxy records covering…
Time series analysis of delta-O-18 and delta-C-13 measurements from benthic foraminifera for purposes of paleoclimatology is challenging. The time series reach back tens of millions of years, they are relatively sparse in the early record…
We apply two independent data analysis methodologies to locate stable climate states in an intermediate complexity climate model and analyze their interplay. First, drawing from the theory of quasipotentials, and viewing the state space as…
This paper proposes an information theory approach to estimate the number of changepoints and their locations in a climatic time series. A model is introduced that has an unknown number of changepoints and allows for series…
The Earth is well-known to be, in the current astronomical configuration, in a regime where two asymptotic states can be realised. The warm state we live in is in competition with the ice-covered snowball state. The bistability exists as a…
The Eocene-Oligocene transition marks a watershed point of earth's climate history. The climate shifts from a greenhouse state to an icehouse state in which Antarctica glaciated for the first time and periodic dynamics arise which are still…
Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and…
This paper presents a statistical analysis of structural changes in the Central England temperature series, one of the longest surface temperature records available. A changepoint analysis is performed to detect abrupt changes, which can be…
Change-point analysis is a flexible and computationally tractable tool for the analysis of times series data from systems that transition between discrete states and whose observables are corrupted by noise. The change-point algorithm is…
Understanding how climate and innovation policies perform during socio-technical transitions remains a central challenge in innovation studies. Empirical analyses of the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions continue to…
Tipping elements in the climate system are large-scale subregions of the Earth that might possess threshold behavior under global warming with large potential impacts on human societies. Here, we study a subset of five tipping elements and…
This study investigates temporal variability in U.S. climate using harmonic decomposition techniques, specifically Fourier and wavelet transforms. Monthly temperature, precipitation, and drought index data from the National Oceanic and…
Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system's response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and -…
In our modeling of the long-term carbon cycle we find potential multiple steady-states in Phanerozoic climates. We include the effects of biotic enhancement of weathering on land, organic carbon burial, oxidation of reduced organic carbon…
We perform an objective change-point analysis on 106 years of historical hurricane number data. The algorithm we use looks at all possible combinations of change-points and compares them in terms of the variances of the differences between…
For a wide range of values of the incoming solar radiation, the Earth features at least two attracting states, which correspond to competing climates. The warm climate is analogous to the present one; the snowball climate features global…
We analyse the transitions between established phases of the El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by surveying the daily data of the Southern Oscillation Index from an entropic viewpoint using the framework of stochastic Statistical…
A new method of regime shift detection in the correlation coefficient is proposed. The method is designed to find multiple change-points with unknown locations in time series. It signals a possible regime shift in real time and allows for…
Season and their transitions play a critical role in sharpening ecosystems and human activities, yet traditional classifications, meteorological and astronomical, fail to capture the complexities of biosphere-atmosphere interactions.…