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With the next generation of both electromagnetic and gravitational wave observatories beginning to come online, rapid analysis methods for kilonova data are becoming increasingly important in astronomy. Traditional Bayesian parameter…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-15 Stephanie M. Brown , Mattia Bulla , Hiranya V. Peiris , Nikhil Sarin , Daniel Mortlock , Stephen Thorp , Gurjeet Jagwani , Stephan Rosswog , Samaya Nissanke

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is an established approach for performing Bayesian inference on scientific simulators. SBI so far works best on low-dimensional parametric models. However, it is difficult to infer function-valued…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-17 Guy Moss , Leah Sophie Muhle , Reinhard Drews , Jakob H. Macke , Cornelius Schröder

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Anshuk Uppal , Kristoffer Stensbo-Smidt , Wouter Boomsma , Jes Frellsen

Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), synthetic likelihood, and neural posterior estimation (NPE) rely on simulating statistics to infer parameters of intractable likelihood models.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-06 Daolang Huang , Ayush Bharti , Amauri Souza , Luigi Acerbi , Samuel Kaski

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables parameter estimation for complex stochastic models with intractable likelihoods when model simulation is feasible. Neural posterior estimation (NPE) is a popular SBI approach that often achieves…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-23 Ryan P. Kelly , David T. Frazier , David J. Warne , Christopher C. Drovandi

Making inferences about physical properties of the Universe requires knowledge of the data likelihood. A Gaussian distribution is commonly assumed for the uncertainties with a covariance matrix estimated from a set of simulations. The noise…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-07-09 Jed Homer , Oliver Friedrich , Daniel Gruen

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) offers a principled and flexible framework for conducting Bayesian inference in any situation where forward simulations are feasible. However, validating the accuracy and reliability of the inferred…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-01-21 James Alvey , Carlo R. Contaldi , Mauro Pieroni

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is transforming experimental sciences by enabling parameter estimation in complex non-linear models from simulated data. A persistent challenge, however, is model misspecification: simulators are only…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-20 Pierre-Louis Ruhlmann , Pedro L. C. Rodrigues , Michael Arbel , Florence Forbes

Neural networks are being extensively used for modelling data, especially in the case where no likelihood can be formulated. Although in the case of X-ray spectral fitting, the likelihood is known, we aim to investigate the neural networks…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-02-22 Didier Barret , Simon Dupourqué

This work introduces a sampling method capable of solving Bayesian inverse problems in function space. It does not assume the log-concavity of the likelihood, meaning that it is compatible with nonlinear inverse problems. The method…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-27 Lorenzo Baldassari , Ali Siahkoohi , Josselin Garnier , Knut Solna , Maarten V. de Hoop

Simulation-based inference (SBI) with neural posterior estimation (NPE) provides rapid X-ray spectral fitting in both Gaussian and Poisson regimes by learning approximate parameter posteriors from simulations. We investigate auto-encoders…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-04-22 Didier Barret , Simon Dupourqué

Computational models are invaluable in capturing the complexities of real-world biological processes. Yet, the selection of appropriate algorithms for inference tasks, especially when dealing with real-world observational data, remains a…

Applications · Statistics 2024-10-01 Xiaoyu Wang , Ryan P. Kelly , Adrianne L. Jenner , David J. Warne , Christopher Drovandi

The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) data stream will inevitably contain gaps due to maintenance and environmental disturbances, introducing nonstationarities and spectral leakage that compromise standard frequency-domain…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-12-30 Ruiting Mao , Jeong Eun Lee , Matthew C. Edwards

We present FlowSN, a statistical framework using simulation-based inference (SBI) with normalising flows to account for selection effects in observational astronomy. Failure to account for selection effects can lead to biased inference on…

Neural likelihood estimation methods for simulation-based inference can suffer from performance degradation when the modeled data is very high-dimensional or lies along a lower-dimensional manifold, which is due to the inability of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-12 Simon Dirmeier , Carlo Albert , Fernando Perez-Cruz

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) deals with statistical inference in problems where the data are generated from a system that is described by a complex stochastic simulator. The challenge for inference in these problems is that the…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-17 David Refaeli , Mira Marcus-Kalish , David M. Steinberg

We study posterior sampling for inverse problems in discrete state spaces using discrete diffusion models as generative priors. While continuous diffusion models have become widely used for inverse problems, their discrete counterparts…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Chaitanya Amballa , Sattwik Basu , Jorge Vančo Sampedro , Romit Roy Choudhury

Reconstructing high-fidelity magnetic resonance (MR) images from under-sampled k-space is a commonly used strategy to reduce scan time. The posterior sampling of diffusion models based on the real measurement data holds significant promise…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-07-04 Jiayue Chu , Chenhe Du , Xiyue Lin , Yuyao Zhang , Hongjiang Wei

We present a concise derivation for several influential score-based diffusion models that relies on only a few textbook results. Diffusion models have recently emerged as powerful tools for generating realistic, synthetic signals --…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-06 Chicago Y. Park , Michael T. McCann , Cristina Garcia-Cardona , Brendt Wohlberg , Ulugbek S. Kamilov

Purpose: The Unadjusted Langevin Algorithm (ULA) in combination with diffusion models can generate high quality MRI reconstructions with uncertainty estimation from highly undersampled k-space data. However, sampling methods such as…

Medical Physics · Physics 2026-05-26 Moritz Blumenthal , Tina Holliber , Jonathan I. Tamir , Martin Uecker