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In recent years, there has been a remarkable development of simulation-based inference (SBI) algorithms, and they have now been applied across a wide range of astrophysical and cosmological analyses. There are a number of key advantages to…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-03-18 Noemi Anau Montel , James Alvey , Christoph Weniger

We present a conditional diffusion model - ConDiSim, for simulation-based inference of complex systems with intractable likelihoods. ConDiSim leverages denoising diffusion probabilistic models to approximate posterior distributions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-17 Mayank Nautiyal , Andreas Hellander , Prashant Singh

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables amortized Bayesian inference by first training a neural posterior estimator (NPE) on prior-simulator pairs, typically through low-dimensional summary statistics, which can then be cheaply reused for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-11 Sherman Khoo , Dennis Prangle , Song Liu , Mark Beaumont

Computer simulations have long presented the exciting possibility of scientific insight into complex real-world processes. Despite the power of modern computing, however, it remains challenging to systematically perform inference under…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-10 Sam Griesemer , Defu Cao , Zijun Cui , Carolina Osorio , Yan Liu

Scientists and engineers employ stochastic numerical simulators to model empirically observed phenomena. In contrast to purely statistical models, simulators express scientific principles that provide powerful inductive biases, improve…

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-11 Tomas Geffner , George Papamakarios , Andriy Mnih

Sampling from the posterior is a key technical problem in Bayesian statistics. Rigorous guarantees are difficult to obtain for Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms of common use. In this paper, we study an alternative class of algorithms…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-26 Andrea Montanari , Yuchen Wu

Simulation-based inference (SBI) methods typically require fully observed data to infer parameters of models with intractable likelihood functions. However, datasets often contain missing values due to incomplete observations, data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-04 Yogesh Verma , Ayush Bharti , Vikas Garg

Simulation-based inference (SBI) provides a powerful framework for inferring posterior distributions of stochastic simulators in a wide range of domains. In many settings, however, the posterior distribution is not the end goal itself --…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Mila Gorecki , Jakob H. Macke , Michael Deistler

When a statistical model $\{P_{\theta} : \theta \in \Theta\}$ lacks analytically tractable likelihoods, parametric statistical inference based on data generated from an unknown underlying distribution $P$ can still be performed as long as…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Peter Matthew Jacobs , Lekha Patel , Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is an approach to statistical inference where simulations from an assumed model are used to construct estimators and confidence sets. SBI is often used when the likelihood is intractable and to construct…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Lorenzo Tomaselli , Valérie Ventura , Larry Wasserman

Score-based diffusion models provide a powerful way to model images using the gradient of the data distribution. Leveraging the learned score function as a prior, here we introduce a way to sample data from a conditional distribution given…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-07-19 Hyungjin Chung , Jong Chul Ye

This paper proposes a novel diffusion-based posterior sampling method within a plug-and-play (PnP) framework. Our approach constructs a probability transport from an easy-to-sample terminal distribution to the target posterior, using a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-10 Jinyuan Chang , Chenguang Duan , Yuling Jiao , Ruoxuan Li , Jerry Zhijian Yang , Cheng Yuan

In the field of inverse estimation for systems modeled by partial differential equations (PDEs), challenges arise when estimating high- (or even infinite-) dimensional parameters. Typically, the ill-posed nature of such problems…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-08-30 Yankun Hong , Harshit Bansal , Karen Veroy

Building on the recent trend of new deep generative models known as Normalizing Flows (NF), simulation-based inference (SBI) algorithms can now efficiently accommodate arbitrary complex and high-dimensional data distributions. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-28 Julia Linhart , Alexandre Gramfort , Pedro L. C. Rodrigues

We develop the framework of Linear Simulation-based Inference (LSBI), an application of simulation-based inference where the likelihood is approximated by a Gaussian linear function of its parameters. We obtain analytical expressions for…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-01-08 Nicolas Mediato-Diaz , Will Handley

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables parameter inference by training neural networks on forward simulations. It is being applied both for intractable likelihoods as well as under time constraints on the posterior sampling. After…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-12 Leander Thiele

Simulation-based inference (SBI) is a statistical inference approach for estimating latent parameters of a physical system when the likelihood is intractable but simulations are available. In practice, SBI is often hindered by model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Ortal Senouf , Antoine Wehenkel , Cédric Vincent-Cuaz , Emmanuel Abbé , Pascal Frossard

Given a noisy linear measurement $y = Ax + \xi$ of a distribution $p(x)$, and a good approximation to the prior $p(x)$, when can we sample from the posterior $p(x \mid y)$? Posterior sampling provides an accurate and fair framework for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-19 Zhiyang Xun , Shivam Gupta , Eric Price

Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) enables rapid parameter inference for complex simulators with intractable likelihoods. NPE trains an inference network to estimate a probability density over parameters given data, typically assumed to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Jan Boelts , Cornelius Schröder , Jonas Beck , Jakob H. Macke , Michael Deistler , Daniel Gedon