Related papers: Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation
There is by now a large consensus in modern monetary policy. This consensus has been built upon a dynamic general equilibrium model of optimal monetary policy as developed by, e.g., Goodfriend and King (1997), Clarida et al. (1999),…
We propose a new model for the joint evolution of the European inflation rate, the European Central Bank official interest rate and the short-term interest rate, in a stochastic, continuous time setting. We derive the valuation equation for…
In this paper, we demonstrate that a unified description of early and late-time acceleration is possible in the context of mimetic $F(R)$ gravity. We study the inflationary era in detail and demonstrate that it can be realized even in…
We consider constraints on inflation driven by a single, minimally coupled scalar field in the light of the WMAP5 dataset, as well as ACBAR and the SuperNova Legacy Survey. We use the Slow Roll Reconstruction algorithm to derive optimal…
When Inflation is embedded in a fundamental theory, such as string theory, it typically begins when the Universe is already substantially larger than the fundamental scale [such as the one defined by the string length scale]. This is…
The use of moving averages is pervasive in macroeconomic monitoring, particularly for tracking noisy series such as inflation. The choice of the look-back window is crucial. Too long of a moving average is not timely enough when faced with…
In regression, conformal prediction is a general methodology to construct prediction intervals in a distribution-free manner. Although conformal prediction guarantees strong statistical property for predictive inference, its inherent…
The ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA) is becoming a popular assisted history matching method. In its standard form, the method requires the specification of the number of iterations in advance. If the selected…
We study an assortment optimization problem under a multi-purchase choice model in which customers choose a bundle of up to one product from each of two product categories. Different bundles have different utilities and the bundle price is…
The conventional linear Phillips curve model, while widely used in policymaking, often struggles to deliver accurate forecasts in the presence of structural breaks and inherent nonlinearities. This paper addresses these limitations by…
Accurate demand forecasting in the retail industry is a critical determinant of financial performance and supply chain efficiency. As global markets become increasingly interconnected, businesses are turning towards advanced prediction…
Recent results from cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments verify several of the predictions of inflation, while ruling out a number of alternative structure-formation scenarios. Given the successes of the theory, the obvious next…
Kernel techniques are among the most popular and flexible approaches in data science allowing to represent probability measures without loss of information under mild conditions. The resulting mapping called mean embedding gives rise to a…
Given a graph with positive and negative edge labels, the correlation clustering problem aims to cluster the nodes so to minimize the total number of between-cluster positive and within-cluster negative edges. This problem has many…
Forecasts of product demand are essential for short- and long-term optimization of logistics and production. Thus, the most accurate prediction possible is desirable. In order to optimally train predictive models, the deviation of the…
We study the high-dimensional linear regression problem with categorical predictors that have many levels. We propose a new estimation approach, which performs model compression via two mechanisms by simultaneously encouraging (a)…
This paper discusses the revenue management (RM) problem to maximize revenue by pricing items or services. One challenge in this problem is that the demand distribution is unknown and varies over time in real applications such as airline…
It has become standard practice to take the logarithmic growth of the scale factor as a measure of the amount of inflation, despite the well-known fact that this is only an approximation for the true amount of inflation required to solve…
Motivated by Planck confirmation of an anomalously low value of the CMB temperature fluctuations up to multipole $\ell<40$, we in this paper try to explain such feature by investigating case of punctuated inflation scenario. This form of…
Model collapse occurs when generative models degrade after repeatedly training on their own synthetic outputs. We study this effect in overparameterized linear regression in a setting where each iteration mixes fresh real labels with…