Related papers: Maximally Forward-Looking Core Inflation
As a quantitative characterization of the complicated economy, Macroeconomic Variables (MEVs), including GDP, inflation, unemployment, income, spending, interest rate, etc., are playing a crucial role in banks' portfolio management and…
I propose an approach to quantify attention to inflation in the data and show that the decrease in the volatility and persistence of U.S. inflation after the Great Inflation period was accompanied by a decline in the public's attention to…
In this paper, we study the assortment optimization problem under the mixed-logit customer choice model. While assortment optimization has been a major topic in revenue management for decades, the mixed-logit model is considered one of the…
A generic non-minimal coupling can push any higher-order terms of the scalar potential sufficiently far out in field space to yield observationally viable plateau inflation. We provide analytic and numerical evidence that this generically…
The classifications of inflationary regimes proposed in the literature have mostly been based on arbitrary characterizations, subject to value judgments by researchers. The objective of this study is to propose a new methodological approach…
Economic complexity methods, and in particular relatedness measures, lack a systematic evaluation and comparison framework. We argue that out-of-sample forecast exercises should play this role, and we compare various machine learning models…
A new family of inflationary models is introduced and analysed. The behaviour of the parameters characterising the models suggest preferred values, which generate the most interesting testable predictions. Results are further improved if…
In this paper, we forecast euro area inflation and its main components using an econometric model which exploits a massive number of time series on survey expectations for the European Commission's Business and Consumer Survey. To make…
We review recent trends on inflationary dynamics in the context of viable modified gravity theories. After providing a general overview of the inflationary paradigm emphasizing on what problems of hot Big Bang theory inflation solves, and a…
Correlation clustering is a fundamental combinatorial optimization problem arising in many contexts and applications that has been the subject of dozens of papers in the literature. In this problem we are given a general weighted graph…
Growth-at-Risk has recently become a key measure of macroeconomic tail-risk, which has seen it be researched extensively. Surprisingly, the same cannot be said for Inflation-at-Risk where both tails, deflation and high inflation, are of key…
Motivated by the current fears of a potentially stagflationary global economic environment, this paper uses new and recently introduced mathematical techniques to study multivariate time series pertaining to country inflation (CPI),…
When fitting a particular Economic model on a sample of data, the model may turn out to be heavily misspecified for some observations. This can happen because of unmodelled idiosyncratic events, such as an abrupt but short-lived change in…
Brane inflation can provide a promissing framework for solving the fine-tuning problem in standard inflationary models. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the mechanism by which this can be achieved. By considering the supersymmetric…
We study the dynamics of a generalized inflationary model in which both the scalar field and its derivatives are coupled to the gravity. We consider a general form of the nonminimal derivative coupling in order to have a complete treatment…
We apply the holographic principle at the early universe, obtaining an inflation realization of holographic origin. Such a consideration has equal footing with its well-studied late-time application, and moreover the decrease of the…
This paper evaluates the performance of prominent machine learning (ML) algorithms in predicting Indonesia's inflation using the payment system, capital market, and macroeconomic data. We compare the forecasting performance of each ML…
This paper develops a practical framework for using observational data to audit the consumer surplus effects of AI-driven decisions, specifically in targeted pricing and algorithmic lending. Traditional approaches first estimate demand…
We revisit an inflationary scenario in which primordial inhomogeneities arise from a quantum collapse, a stochastic mechanism described in the context of quantum collapse theories in its continuous version and within semiclassical gravity.…
A linear and lagged relationship between inflation and labor force change rate, p(t)= A1dLF(t-t1)/LF(t-t1)+A2 was found for developed economies. For the USA, A1=4.0, A2=-0.03075, and t1=2 years. It provides a RMS forecasting error (RMFSE)…