Related papers: The Life Care Annuity: enhancing product features …
Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) has proven highly effective in solving complex planning tasks by balancing exploration and exploitation using Upper Confidence Bound for Trees (UCT). However, existing work have not considered MCTS-based…
This paper describes a general approach for stochastic modeling of assets returns and liability cash-flows of a typical pensions insurer. On the asset side, we model the investment returns on equities and various classes of fixed-income…
This paper considers the constrained portfolio optimization in a generalized life-cycle model. The individual with a stochastic income manages a portfolio consisting of stocks, a bond, and life insurance to maximize his or her consumption…
This study proposes a linear-rational joint survival mortality model based on the Wishart process. The Wishart process, which is a stochastic continuous matrix affine process, allows for a general dependency between the mortality…
Classification and Regression Trees (CARTs) are off-the-shelf techniques in modern Statistics and Machine Learning. CARTs are traditionally built by means of a greedy procedure, sequentially deciding the splitting predictor variable(s) and…
We study the problem of a seller dynamically pricing $d$ distinct types of indivisible goods, when faced with the online arrival of unit-demand buyers drawn independently from an unknown distribution. The goods are not in limited supply,…
A multi--state life insurance model is naturally described in terms of the intensity matrix of an underlying (time--inhomogeneous) Markov process which describes the dynamics for the states of an insured person. Between and at transitions,…
Long-tailed classification is challenging due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities. While existing methods often focus on overall accuracy or accuracy for tail classes, they overlook a critical aspect: certain types of errors can…
We develop a class of non-life reserving models using a stable-1/2 random bridge to simulate the accumulation of paid claims, allowing for an essentially arbitrary choice of a priori distribution for the ultimate loss. Taking an…
The purpose of the present paper is to incorporate stochastic interest rates into a matrix-approach to multi-state life insurance, where formulas for reserves, moments of future payments and equivalence premiums can be obtained as explicit…
Insurance companies make extensive use of Monte Carlo simulations in their capital and solvency models. To overcome the computational problems associated with Monte Carlo simulations, most large life insurance companies use proxy models…
In this paper, we consider the classic stochastic (dynamic) knapsack problem, a fundamental mathematical model in revenue management, with general time-varying random demand. Our main goal is to study the optimal policies, which can be…
In this paper, we consider the problem of maximizing the expected discounted utility of dividend payments for an insurance company that controls risk exposure by purchasing proportional reinsurance. We assume the preference of the insurer…
Insurance companies must manage millions of claims per year. While most of these claims are non-fraudulent, fraud detection is core for insurance companies. The ultimate goal is a predictive model to single out the fraudulent claims and pay…
The last two centuries have seen a significant increase in life expectancy. Although past trends suggest that mortality will continue to decline in the future, uncertainty and instability about the development is greatly increased due to…
This paper analyzes a novel type of mortality contingent-claim called a ruin-contingent life annuity (RCLA). This product fuses together a path-dependent equity put option with a "personal longevity" call option. The annuitant's (i.e. long…
Sequential decision making for lifetime maximization is a critical problem in many real-world applications, such as medical treatment and portfolio selection. In these applications, a "reneging" phenomenon, where participants may disengage…
This paper addresses the design of safety certificates for stochastic systems, with a focus on ensuring long-term safety through fast real-time control. In stochastic environments, set invariance-based methods that restrict the probability…
We pose the decumulation strategy for a Defined Contribution (DC) pension plan as a problem in optimal stochastic control. The controls are the withdrawal amounts and the asset allocation strategy. We impose maximum and minimum constraints…
Modeling policyholders lapse behaviors is important to a life insurer since lapses affect pricing, reserving, profitability, liquidity, risk management, as well as the solvency of the insurer. Lapse risk is indeed the most significant life…