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The power prior is a popular class of informative priors for incorporating information from historical data. It involves raising the likelihood for the historical data to a power, which acts as discounting parameter. When the discounting…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-09 Yueqi Shen , Luiz M. Carvalho , Matthew A. Psioda , Joseph G. Ibrahim

Power priors are used for incorporating historical data in Bayesian analyses by taking the likelihood of the historical data raised to the power $\alpha$ as the prior distribution for the model parameters. The power parameter $\alpha$ is…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-27 Samuel Pawel , Frederik Aust , Leonhard Held , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

The elicitation of power priors, based on the availability of historical data, is realized by raising the likelihood function of the historical data to a fractional power {\delta}, which quantifies the degree of discounting of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-13 Keying Ye , Zifei Han , Yuyan Duan , Tianyu Bai

The power prior is a popular tool for constructing informative prior distributions based on historical data. The method consists of raising the likelihood to a discounting factor in order to control the amount of information borrowed from…

Applications · Statistics 2022-03-29 Luiz Max Carvalho , Joseph G. Ibrahim

In current clinical trial development, historical information is receiving more attention as it provides utility beyond sample size calculation. Meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) priors and robust MAP priors have been proposed for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-03 Tianyu Zhan , Yiwang Zhou , Ziqian Geng , Yihua Gu , Jian Kang , Li Wang , Xiaohong Huang , Elizabeth H. Slate

There has been increased interest in using prior information in statistical analyses. For example, in rare diseases, it can be difficult to establish treatment efficacy based solely on data from a prospective study due to low sample sizes.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-26 Ethan M. Alt , Matthew A. Psioda , Joseph G. Ibrahim

Borrowing external data can improve estimation efficiency but may introduce bias when populations differ in covariate distributions or outcome variability. A proper balance needs to be maintained between the two datasets to justify the…

In clinical trials, there often exist multiple historical studies for the same or related treatment investigated in the current trial. Incorporating historical data in the analysis of the current study is of great importance, as it can help…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-02-02 Huaqing Jin , Guosheng Yin

The ongoing replication crisis in science has increased interest in the methodology of replication studies. We propose a novel Bayesian analysis approach using power priors: The likelihood of the original study's data is raised to the power…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-28 Samuel Pawel , Frederik Aust , Leonhard Held , Eric-Jan Wagenmakers

We develop the scale transformed power prior for settings where historical and current data involve different data types, such as binary and continuous data, respectively. This situation arises often in clinical trials, for example, when…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-12 Brady Nifong , Matthew A. Psioda , Joseph G. Ibrahim

Adaptive enrichment trials aim to identify and recruit participants most likely to benefit from treatment based on evolving biomarker evidence, with the goal of informing individualized treatment recommendations. Bayesian methods are well…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-11 Lara Maleyeff , Shirin Golchi , Erica E. M. Moodie

The power prior is a class of informative priors designed to incorporate historical data alongside current data in a Bayesian framework. It includes a power parameter that controls the influence of historical data, providing flexibility and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-23 Masanari Kimura , Howard Bondell

Use of historical control data to augment a small internal control arm in a randomized control trial (RCT) can lead to significant improvement of the efficiency of the trial. It introduces the risk of potential bias, since the historical…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-05 Jixian Wang , Hongtao Zhang , Ram Tiwari

Incorporating historical information into the design and analysis of a new clinical trial has been the subject of much recent discussion. For example, in the context of clinical trials of antibiotics for drug resistant infections, where…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-08 Isaac Gravestock , Leonhard Held

It is becoming increasingly popular to elicit informative priors on the basis of historical data. Popular existing priors, including the power prior, commensurate prior, and robust meta-analytic prior provide blanket discounting. Thus, if…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-10 Ethan M. Alt , Xiuya Chang , Xun Jiang , Qing Liu , May Mo , H. Amy Xia , Joseph G. Ibrahim

In recent years, neural networks (NNs) have become increasingly popular for surrogate modeling tasks in mechanics and materials modeling applications. While traditional NNs are deterministic functions that rely solely on data to learn the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-03 Javad Ghorbanian , Nicholas Casaprima , Audrey Olivier

In early phase drug development of combination therapy, the primary objective is to preliminarily assess whether there is additive activity from a novel agent when combined with an established monotherapy. Due to potential feasibility…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-24 Zhaohua Lu , John Toso , Girma Ayele , Philip He

The power prior and its variations have been proven to be a useful class of informative priors in Bayesian inference due to their flexibility in incorporating the historical information by raising the likelihood of the historical data to a…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-14 Zifei Han , Keying Ye , Min Wang

Incorporating historical or real-world data into analyses of treatment effects for rare diseases has become increasingly popular. A major challenge, however, lies in determining the appropriate degree of congruence between historical and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-01 Shixuan Wang , Jing Zhang , Emily L. Kang , Bin Zhang

Unlike in the traditional statistical modeling for which a user typically hand-specify a prior, Neural Processes (NPs) implicitly define a broad class of stochastic processes with neural networks. Given a data stream, NP learns a stochastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-28 Juho Lee , Yoonho Lee , Jungtaek Kim , Eunho Yang , Sung Ju Hwang , Yee Whye Teh
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