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Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive weather systems. Realistically and efficiently detecting and tracking TCs are critical for assessing their impacts and risks. Recently, a multilevel robustness framework has been…
Wind energy makes a significant contribution to global power generation. Predicting wind turbine capacity is becoming increasingly crucial for cleaner production. For this purpose, a new information priority accumulated grey model with time…
Cloud processes are the largest source of uncertainty in quantifying the global temperature response to carbon dioxide rise. Still, the role of precipitation efficiency (PE) -- surface rain per unit column -- integrated condensation -- is…
Understanding future changes in temperature variability and extremes is an important scientific challenge with societal impacts. Here the responses of daily near-surface temperature distributions to climate warming is explored using an…
Emission metrics, a crucial tool in setting effective equivalences between greenhouse gases, currently require a subjective, arbitrary choice of time horizon. Here, we propose a novel framework that uses a specific temperature goal to…
Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank among the most costly natural disasters in the United States, and accurate forecasts of track and intensity are critical for emergency response. Intensity guidance has improved steadily but slowly, as processes…
The Earth, like other planets with a relatively thick atmosphere, is not locally in radiative equilibrium and the transport of energy by the geophysical fluids (atmosphere and ocean) plays a fundamental role in determining its climate.…
Predictions of the uncertainty associated with extreme events are a vital component of any prediction system for such events. Consequently, the prediction system ought to be probabilistic in nature, with the predictions taking the form of…
Tropical monsoons play a critical role in shaping regional and global climate systems, with profound ecological and socio-economic impacts. However, their long-term prediction remains challenging due to the complex interplay of regional…
Hurricanes and, more generally, tropical cyclones (TCs) are rare, complex natural phenomena of both scientific and public interest. The importance of understanding TCs in a changing climate has increased as recent TCs have had devastating…
In contrast to prevailing knowledge, Ram\'irez Reyes and Yang (2021) showed that tropical cyclones (TCs) can form spontaneously without moisture-radiation and surface-flux feedbacks in a cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulation. Here we ask,…
To a tropical $p$-cycle $V_{\mathbb{T}}$ in $\mathbb{R}^n$, we naturally associate a normal closed and $(p,p)$-dimensional current on $(\mathbb{C}^*)^n$ denoted by $\mathscr{T}_n^p(V_{\mathbb{T}})$. Such a "tropical current"…
Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts are ultimately issued by human forecasters. The human in-the-loop pipeline requires that any forecasting guidance must be easily digestible by TC experts if it is to be adopted at operational…
Climate models are essential for assessing the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on our changing climate and the resulting increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Despite the widespread acceptance of climate models…
Intensification of tropical storms measured as the central pressure tendency represents a subtle imbalance, of the order of $10^{-3}$, between the inflow and outflow of air in the storm core. Factors driving this imbalance, especially in…
The product of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitation rate has previously been used as a proxy for cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash counts in climate change applications. Here the ability of this proxy, denoted…
Direct computer simulation of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in weather models is limited by computational expense. Intense TCs are rare and have small-scale structures, making it difficult to produce large ensembles of storms at high…
Tropical precipitation extremes are expected to strengthen with warming, but quantitative estimates remain uncertain because of a poor understanding of changes in convective dynamics. This uncertainty is addressed here by analyzing…
Bayesian hierarchical models are proposed for modeling tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage potential in the Atlantic basin. We model the joint probability distribution of tropical cyclone characteristics and their damage…
The aim of this note is to describe several meteorological properties shown in a conference talk (Marquet, January 2022) for the moist-air specific entropy, the associated potential temperature ($\theta_s$) defined in Marquet (2011) and the…