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The fundamental problem in treatment effect estimation from observational data is confounder identification and balancing. Most of the previous methods realized confounder balancing by treating all observed pre-treatment variables as…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-13 Anpeng Wu , Kun Kuang , Junkun Yuan , Bo Li , Runze Wu , Qiang Zhu , Yueting Zhuang , Fei Wu

The doubly robust (DR) estimator, which consists of two nuisance parameters, the conditional mean outcome and the logging policy (the probability of choosing an action), is crucial in causal inference. This paper proposes a DR estimator for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-22 Masahiro Kato , Shota Yasui , Kenichiro McAlinn

Covariate imbalance between treatment groups makes it difficult to compare cumulative incidence curves in competing risk analyses. In this paper we discuss different methods to estimate adjusted cumulative incidence curves including inverse…

Irregular functional data in which densely sampled curves are observed over different ranges pose a challenge for modeling and inference, and sensitivity to outlier curves is a concern in applications. Motivated by applications in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-14 Yeonjoo Park , Xiaohui Chen , Douglas G. Simpson

Many researchers have applied classical statistical decision theory to evaluate treatment choices and learn optimal policies. However, because this framework is based solely on realized outcomes under chosen decisions and ignores…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-21 Benedikt Koch , Kosuke Imai

Whereas confidence intervals are used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured individuals, confounding intervals can be used to assess uncertainty due to unmeasured attributes. Previously, we have introduced a methodology for computing…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-13 Brian Knaeble , R Mitchell Hughes

Missing data is frequently encountered in many areas of statistics. Propensity score weighting is a popular method for handling missing data. The propensity score method employs a response propensity model, but correct specification of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-28 Hengfang Wang , Jae Kwang Kim , Jeongseop Han , Youngjo Lee

We propose an architecture for training generative models of counterfactual conditionals of the form, 'can we modify event A to cause B instead of C?', motivated by applications in robot control. Using an 'adversarial training' paradigm, an…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-09-23 Simón C. Smith , Subramanian Ramamoorthy

We show that one can perform causal inference in a natural way for continuous-time scenarios using tools from stochastic analysis. This provides new alternatives to the positivity condition for inverse probability weighting. The probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-04-23 Kjetil Røysland

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Yulun Wu , Louie McConnell , Claudia Iriondo

Estimating the distribution of outcomes under counterfactual policies is critical for decision-making in domains such as recommendation, advertising, and healthcare. We propose and analyze a novel framework-Counterfactual Policy Mean…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-29 Houssam Zenati , Bariscan Bozkurt , Arthur Gretton

Learning causal relationships between pairs of complex traits from observational studies is of great interest across various scientific domains. However, most existing methods assume the absence of unmeasured confounding and restrict causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-17 Wei Li , Rui Duan , Sai Li

Estimating the counterfactual outcome of treatment is essential for decision-making in public health and clinical science, among others. Often, treatments are administered in a sequential, time-varying manner, leading to an exponentially…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-16 Shenghao Wu , Wenbin Zhou , Minshuo Chen , Shixiang Zhu

Proximal causal learning is a promising framework for identifying the causal effect under the existence of unmeasured confounders. Within this framework, the doubly robust (DR) estimator was derived and has shown its effectiveness in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-12 Yong Wu , Yanwei Fu , Shouyan Wang , Xinwei Sun

Observational studies are rising in importance due to the widespread accumulation of data in fields such as healthcare, education, employment and ecology. We consider the task of answering counterfactual questions such as, "Would this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-07 Fredrik D. Johansson , Uri Shalit , David Sontag

We propose a method to infer causal structures containing both discrete and continuous variables. The idea is to select causal hypotheses for which the conditional density of every variable, given its causes, becomes smooth. We define a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2009-10-30 Dominik Janzing , Xiaohai Sun , Bernhard Schoelkopf

Causal approaches to fairness have seen substantial recent interest, both from the machine learning community and from wider parties interested in ethical prediction algorithms. In no small part, this has been due to the fact that causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-17 Niki Kilbertus , Philip J. Ball , Matt J. Kusner , Adrian Weller , Ricardo Silva

In this paper, we apply doubly robust approach to estimate, when some covariates are given, the conditional average treatment effect under parametric, semiparametric and nonparametric structure of the nuisance propensity score and outcome…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-15 Chuyun Ye , Keli Guo , Lixing Zhu

Many causal estimands are only partially identifiable since they depend on the unobservable joint distribution between potential outcomes. Stratification on pretreatment covariates can yield sharper bounds; however, unless the covariates…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-19 Wenlong Ji , Lihua Lei , Asher Spector

Causal structure discovery methods are commonly applied to structured data where the causal variables are known and where statistical testing can be used to assess the causal relationships. By contrast, recovering a causal structure from…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Gaël Gendron , Jože M. Rožanec , Michael Witbrock , Gillian Dobbie