Related papers: Revisiting Elastic String Models of Forward Intere…
The phenomenology of the forward rate curve (FRC) can be accurately understood by the fluctuations of a stiff elastic string (Le Coz and Bouchaud, 2024). By relating the exogenous shocks driving such fluctuations to the surprises in the…
This paper offers a new class of models of the term structure of interest rates. We allow each instantaneous forward rate to be driven by a different stochastic shock, constrained in such a way as to keep the forward rate curve continuous.…
We present compelling empirical evidence for a new interpretation of the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) term structure. We find that the average FRC follows a square-root law, with a prefactor related to the spot volatility, suggesting a…
This paper contains a phenomenological description of the whole U.S. forward rate curve (FRC), based on an data in the period 1990-1996. We find that the average FRC (measured from the spot rate) grows as the square-root of the maturity,…
The simplest field theory description of the multivariate statistics of forward rate variations over time and maturities, involves a quadratic action containing a gradient squared rigidity term. However, this choice leads to a spurious kink…
In this paper we study empirically the Forward Rate Curve (FRC) of 5 different currencies. We confirm and extend the findings of our previous investigation of the U.S. Forward Rate Curve. In particular, the average FRC follows a square-root…
We propose a formulation of the term structure of interest rates in which the forward curve is seen as the deformation of a string. We derive the general condition that the partial differential equations governing the motion of such string…
The Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) is becoming the main Risk-Free Rate benchmark in US dollars, thus interest rate term structure models need to be updated to reflect the key features exhibited by the dynamics of SOFR and the forward…
Explicitly taking into account the risk incurred when borrowing at a shorter tenor versus lending at a longer tenor ("roll-over risk"), we construct a stochastic model framework for the term structure of interest rates in which a frequency…
It is well known that the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) stochastic model to study the term structure of interest rates, as introduced in 1985, is inadequate for modelling the current market environment with negative short interest rates.…
Recent empirical studies suggest that the volatilities associated with financial time series exhibit short-range correlations. This entails that the volatility process is very rough and its autocorrelation exhibits sharp decay at the…
The classical approach in finance attempts to model the term structure of interest rates using specified stochastic processes and the no arbitrage argument. Up to now, no universally accepted theory has been obtained for the description of…
We develop an instanton technique for calculations of correlation functions characterizing statistical behavior of the elastic string in disordered media and apply the proposed approach to correlations of string free energies corresponding…
We solve time-reversed stochastic inflation in the semi-infinite flat potential with a constant drift term and derive an exact expression for the probability distribution of the curvature fluctuations. It exhibits exponential decaying tails…
This paper advances interest rate modeling in the post-LIBOR era by introducing rough stochastic volatility into the Forward Market Model (FMM). We establish a rigorous asymptotic expansion of swaption implied volatility, connecting the FMM…
This paper presents a method for forecasting limit order book durations using a self-exciting flexible residual point process. High-frequency events in modern exchanges exhibit heavy-tailed interarrival times, posing a significant challenge…
A detailed analysis of correlation between stock returns at high frequency is compared with simple models of random walks. We focus in particular on the dependence of correlations on time scales - the so-called Epps effect. This provides a…
We address the problem of long-range memory in the financial markets. There are two conceptually different ways to reproduce power-law decay of auto-correlation function: using fractional Brownian motion as well as non-linear stochastic…
The paper uses functional auto-regression to predict the dynamics of interest rate curve. It estimates the auto-regressive operator by extending methods of the reduced-rank auto-regression to the functional data. Such an estimation…
The technique of Pad\'e Approximants, introduced in a previous work, is applied to extended recent data on the distribution of variations of interest rates compiled by the Federal Reserve System in the US. It is shown that new power laws…