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Predictive uncertainty estimation of pre-trained language models is an important measure of how likely people can trust their predictions. However, little is known about what makes a model prediction uncertain. Explaining predictive…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-10-11 Hanjie Chen , Wanyu Du , Yangfeng Ji

The inability of artificial neural networks to assess the uncertainty of their predictions is an impediment to their widespread use. We distinguish two types of learnable uncertainty: model uncertainty due to a lack of training data and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Hans Weytjens , Jochen De Weerdt

Reliable uncertainty quantification is a first step towards building explainable, transparent, and accountable artificial intelligent systems. Recent progress in Bayesian deep learning has made such quantification realizable. In this paper,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-11-20 Yijun Xiao , William Yang Wang

This paper presents a method to explain the knowledge encoded in a convolutional neural network (CNN) quantitatively and semantically. The analysis of the specific rationale of each prediction made by the CNN presents a key issue of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-12-19 Runjin Chen , Hao Chen , Ge Huang , Jie Ren , Quanshi Zhang

Dynamic neural networks are a recent technique that promises a remedy for the increasing size of modern deep learning models by dynamically adapting their computational cost to the difficulty of the inputs. In this way, the model can adjust…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-11 Lassi Meronen , Martin Trapp , Andrea Pilzer , Le Yang , Arno Solin

Graph Neural Networks (GNN) provide a powerful framework that elegantly integrates Graph theory with Machine learning for modeling and analysis of networked data. We consider the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in predictions of GNN…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-23 Sai Munikoti , Deepesh Agarwal , Laya Das , Balasubramaniam Natarajan

Understanding the uncertainty in large language model (LLM) explanations is important for evaluating their faithfulness and reasoning consistency, and thus provides insights into the reliability of LLM's output regarding a question. In this…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-09-16 Longchao Da , Xiaoou Liu , Jiaxin Dai , Lu Cheng , Yaqing Wang , Hua Wei

Feature importance estimates that inform users about the degree to which given inputs influence the output of a predictive model are crucial for understanding, validating, and interpreting machine-learning models. However, providing fast…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-29 Patrick Schwab , Walter Karlen

A common trait of many machine learning models is that it is often difficult to understand and explain what caused the model to produce the given output. While the explainability of neural networks has been an active field of research in…

Effective decision making requires understanding the uncertainty inherent in a prediction. In regression, this uncertainty can be estimated by a variety of methods; however, many of these methods are laborious to tune, generate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-12-02 Tianhui Zhou , Yitong Li , Yuan Wu , David Carlson

Objective: Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have demonstrated promise in automated cardiac magnetic resonance image segmentation. However, when using CNNs in a large real-world dataset, it is important to quantify segmentation…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-01-02 Matthew Ng , Fumin Guo , Labonny Biswas , Steffen E. Petersen , Stefan K. Piechnik , Stefan Neubauer , Graham Wright

In many high-risk machine learning applications it is essential for a model to indicate when it is uncertain about a prediction. While large language models (LLMs) can reach and even surpass human-level accuracy on a variety of benchmarks,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Evan Becker , Stefano Soatto

We evaluate uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods for deep learning applied to liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) physics analysis tasks. As deep learning applications enter widespread usage among physics data analysis, neural…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2023-11-02 Dae Heun Koh , Aashwin Mishra , Kazuhiro Terao

Deep learning models frequently make incorrect predictions with high confidence when presented with test examples that are not well represented in their training dataset. We propose a novel and straightforward approach to estimate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-04 Tiago Ramalho , Miguel Miranda

Recent advances in Neural Variational Inference allowed for a renaissance in latent variable models in a variety of domains involving high-dimensional data. While traditional variational methods derive an analytical approximation for the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-20 Alexander I. Cowen-Rivers , Pasquale Minervini , Tim Rocktaschel , Matko Bosnjak , Sebastian Riedel , Jun Wang

Assessing uncertainty is an important step towards ensuring the safety and reliability of machine learning systems. Existing uncertainty estimation techniques may fail when their modeling assumptions are not met, e.g. when the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-24 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Stefano Ermon

This paper presents an approach for developing the explanation capabilities of rule-based expert systems managing imprecise and uncertain knowledge. The treatment of uncertainty takes place in the framework of possibility theory where the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-08 Henri Farrency , Henri Prade

Methods for interpreting machine learning black-box models increase the outcomes' transparency and in turn generates insight into the reliability and fairness of the algorithms. However, the interpretations themselves could contain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-05 Yujia Zhang , Kuangyan Song , Yiming Sun , Sarah Tan , Madeleine Udell

Explainable AI has brought transparency into complex ML blackboxes, enabling, in particular, to identify which features these models use for their predictions. So far, the question of explaining predictive uncertainty, i.e. why a model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Florian Bley , Sebastian Lapuschkin , Wojciech Samek , Grégoire Montavon

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important component of molecular property prediction, particularly for drug discovery applications where model predictions direct experimental design and where unanticipated imprecision wastes valuable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-21 Lior Hirschfeld , Kyle Swanson , Kevin Yang , Regina Barzilay , Connor W. Coley