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Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Tim Pearce , Felix Leibfried , Alexandra Brintrup , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

Existing methods for quantifying predictive uncertainty in neural networks are either computationally intractable for large language models or require access to training data that is typically unavailable. We derive a lightweight…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Nils Grünefeld , Jes Frellsen , Christian Hardmeier

Uncertainty estimation is critical for numerous applications of deep neural networks and draws growing attention from researchers. Here, we demonstrate an uncertainty quantification approach for deep neural networks used in inverse problems…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-12-15 Luzhe Huang , Jianing Li , Xiaofu Ding , Yijie Zhang , Hanlong Chen , Aydogan Ozcan

Probabilistic graphical models are a fundamental tool in probabilistic modeling, machine learning and artificial intelligence. They allow us to integrate in a natural way expert knowledge, physical modeling, heterogeneous and correlated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-20 Panagiota Birmpa , Jinchao Feng , Markos A. Katsoulakis , Luc Rey-Bellet

Algorithmic transparency entails exposing system properties to various stakeholders for purposes that include understanding, improving, and contesting predictions. Until now, most research into algorithmic transparency has predominantly…

With model trustworthiness being crucial for sensitive real-world applications, practitioners are putting more and more focus on improving the uncertainty calibration of deep neural networks. Calibration errors are designed to quantify the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Sebastian G. Gruber , Florian Buettner

We propose a feed-forward inference method applicable to belief and neural networks. In a belief network, the method estimates an approximate factorized posterior of all hidden units given the input. In neural networks the method propagates…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-02 Alexander Shekhovtsov , Boris Flach , Michal Busta

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have shown remarkable performance in the healthcare domain. However, what remained challenging is quantifying the predictive uncertainty of GNNs, which is an important aspect of trustworthiness in clinical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-28 Hirad Daneshvar , Reza Samavi

Interpretability and uncertainty quantification in machine learning can provide justification for decisions, promote scientific discovery and lead to a better understanding of model behavior. Symbolic regression provides inherently…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2022-11-23 G. F. Bomarito , P. E. Leser , N. C. M Strauss , K. M. Garbrecht , J. D. Hochhalter

Neural networks (NNs) lack measures of "reliability" estimation that would enable reasoning over their predictions. Despite the vital importance, especially in areas of human well-being and health, state-of-the-art uncertainty estimation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-12 Lorena Qendro , Jagmohan Chauhan , Alberto Gil C. P. Ramos , Cecilia Mascolo

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been extensively used in various real-world applications. However, the predictive uncertainty of GNNs stemming from diverse sources such as inherent randomness in data and model training errors can lead to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Fangxin Wang , Yuqing Liu , Kay Liu , Yibo Wang , Sourav Medya , Philip S. Yu

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Antonio Loquercio , Mattia Segù , Davide Scaramuzza

Neural Network (NN) models provide potential to speed up the drug discovery process and reduce its failure rates. The success of NN models require uncertainty quantification (UQ) as drug discovery explores chemical space beyond the training…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-01 Ya Ju Fan , Jonathan E. Allen , Kevin S. McLoughlin , Da Shi , Brian J. Bennion , Xiaohua Zhang , Felice C. Lightstone

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) stand out as one of the most prominent approaches within the Machine Learning (ML) domain. The efficacy of DNNs has surged alongside recent increases in computational capacity, allowing these approaches to scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Jamie Duell , Monika Seisenberger , Hsuan Fu , Xiuyi Fan

This paper surveys uncertainty-aware explainable artificial intelligence (UAXAI), examining how uncertainty is incorporated into explanatory pipelines and how such methods are evaluated. Across the literature, three recurring approaches to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Helena Löfström , Tuwe Löfström , Anders Hjort , Fatima Rabia Yapicioglu

It is a mystery which input features contribute to a neural network's output. Various explanation (feature attribution) methods are proposed in the literature to shed light on the problem. One peculiar observation is that these explanations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-07 Ashkan Khakzar , Pedram Khorsandi , Rozhin Nobahari , Nassir Navab

Deep neural networks are powerful tools to detect hidden patterns in data and leverage them to make predictions, but they are not designed to understand uncertainty and estimate reliable probabilities. In particular, they tend to be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-10 Bat-Sheva Einbinder , Yaniv Romano , Matteo Sesia , Yanfei Zhou

Perturbation-based explanations are widely utilized to enhance the transparency of machine-learning models in practice. However, their reliability is often compromised by the unknown model behavior under the specific perturbations used.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Thomas Decker , Volker Tresp , Florian Buettner

The study of machine learning-based logical query answering enables reasoning with large-scale and incomplete knowledge graphs. This paper advances this area of research by addressing the uncertainty inherent in knowledge. While the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Weizhi Fei , Zihao Wang , Hang Yin , Yang Duan , Yangqiu Song

Deep Ensembles, as a type of Bayesian Neural Networks, can be used to estimate uncertainty on the prediction of multiple neural networks by collecting votes from each network and computing the difference in those predictions. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-10 Illia Oleksiienko , Alexandros Iosifidis
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