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ML models have errors when used for predictions. The errors are unknown but can be quantified by model uncertainty. When multiple ML models are trained using the same training points, their model uncertainties may be statistically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-23 Xiaoping Du

As large language models (LLMs) continue to evolve, understanding and quantifying the uncertainty in their predictions is critical for enhancing application credibility. However, the existing literature relevant to LLM uncertainty…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Hsiu-Yuan Huang , Yutong Yang , Zhaoxi Zhang , Sanwoo Lee , Yunfang Wu

We introduce a method to measure uncertainty in large language models. For tasks like question answering, it is essential to know when we can trust the natural language outputs of foundation models. We show that measuring uncertainty in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-04-18 Lorenz Kuhn , Yarin Gal , Sebastian Farquhar

Despite the wide use of explainability techniques to attempt to understand the behavior of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the generated explanations may not always be reliable. An explanation can appear plausible to humans but fail to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-28 Tomás Pereira , João Vitorino , Eva Maia , Isabel Praça

Interpretability, trustworthiness, and usability are key considerations in high-stake security applications, especially when utilizing deep learning models. While these models are known for their high accuracy, they behave as black boxes in…

Machine translation is a popular test bed for research in neural sequence-to-sequence models but despite much recent research, there is still a lack of understanding of these models. Practitioners report performance degradation with large…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-08-14 Myle Ott , Michael Auli , David Grangier , Marc'Aurelio Ranzato

Language Models (LMs) have shown promising performance in natural language generation. However, as LMs often generate incorrect or hallucinated responses, it is crucial to correctly quantify their uncertainty in responding to given inputs.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-09-17 Xinmeng Huang , Shuo Li , Mengxin Yu , Matteo Sesia , Hamed Hassani , Insup Lee , Osbert Bastani , Edgar Dobriban

Neural networks (NNs) are currently changing the computational paradigm on how to combine data with mathematical laws in physics and engineering in a profound way, tackling challenging inverse and ill-posed problems not solvable with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-08 Apostolos F Psaros , Xuhui Meng , Zongren Zou , Ling Guo , George Em Karniadakis

Recent years have seen a boom in interest in machine learning systems that can provide a human-understandable rationale for their predictions or decisions. However, exactly what kinds of explanation are truly human-interpretable remains…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-02-05 Menaka Narayanan , Emily Chen , Jeffrey He , Been Kim , Sam Gershman , Finale Doshi-Velez

Assessing uncertainty is an important step towards ensuring the safety and reliability of machine learning systems. Existing uncertainty estimation techniques may fail when their modeling assumptions are not met, e.g. when the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-24 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Stefano Ermon

Measurement of uncertainty of predictions from machine learning methods is important across scientific domains and applications. We present, to our knowledge, the first such technique that quantifies the uncertainty of predictions from a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-04-04 Alex Hagen , Karl Pazdernik , Nicole LaHaye , Marjolein Oostrom

One of the motivations for explainable AI is to allow humans to make better and more informed decisions regarding the use and deployment of AI models. But careful evaluations are needed to assess whether this expectation has been fulfilled.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Shawn Im , Jacob Andreas , Yilun Zhou

Calibration strengthens the trustworthiness of black-box models by producing better accurate confidence estimates on given examples. However, little is known about if model explanations can help confidence calibration. Intuitively, humans…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-11-08 Dongfang Li , Baotian Hu , Qingcai Chen

Neural networks are among the most accurate supervised learning methods in use today. However, their opacity makes them difficult to trust in critical applications, especially when conditions in training may differ from those in practice.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-03 Andrew Slavin Ross

Explainability and uncertainty quantification are key to trustable artificial intelligence. However, the reasoning behind uncertainty estimates is generally left unexplained. Identifying the drivers of uncertainty complements explanations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Pascal Iversen , Simon Witzke , Katharina Baum , Bernhard Y. Renard

Counterfactual explanations describe how to modify a feature vector in order to flip the outcome of a trained classifier. Obtaining robust counterfactual explanations is essential to provide valid algorithmic recourse and meaningful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-22 Alexandre Forel , Axel Parmentier , Thibaut Vidal

Evaluating explanations of image classifiers regarding ground truth, e.g. segmentation masks defined by human perception, primarily evaluates the quality of the models under consideration rather than the explanation methods themselves.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-11-09 Hubert Baniecki , Maciej Chrabaszcz , Andreas Holzinger , Bastian Pfeifer , Anna Saranti , Przemyslaw Biecek

In recent years, explainable machine learning methods have been very successful. Despite their success, most explainable machine learning methods are applied to black-box models without any domain knowledge. By incorporating domain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Dangxing Chen

Explainable machine learning and artificial intelligence models have been used to justify a model's decision-making process. This added transparency aims to help improve user performance and understanding of the underlying model. However,…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2020-05-06 Mahsan Nourani , Chiradeep Roy , Tahrima Rahman , Eric D. Ragan , Nicholas Ruozzi , Vibhav Gogate

If Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is crucial to achieve trustworthy Machine Learning (ML), most UQ methods suffer from disparate and inconsistent evaluation protocols. We claim this inconsistency results from the unclear requirements the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-28 Victor Bouvier , Simona Maggio , Alexandre Abraham , Léo Dreyfus-Schmidt