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We consider the problem of performing Bayesian inference in probabilistic models where observations are accompanied by uncertainty, referred to as "uncertain evidence." We explore how to interpret uncertain evidence, and by extension the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-27 Andreas Munk , Alexander Mead , Frank Wood

Neural networks are among the most accurate supervised learning methods in use today, but their opacity makes them difficult to trust in critical applications, especially when conditions in training differ from those in test. Recent work on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-15 Andrew Slavin Ross , Michael C. Hughes , Finale Doshi-Velez

Recently, combinations of generative and Bayesian machine learning have been introduced in particle physics for both fast detector simulation and inference tasks. These neural networks aim to quantify the uncertainty on the generated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-21 Sebastian Bieringer , Sascha Diefenbacher , Gregor Kasieczka , Mathias Trabs

The generation of texts using Large Language Models (LLMs) is inherently uncertain, with sources of uncertainty being not only the generation of texts, but also the prompt used and the downstream interpretation. Within this work, we provide…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-30 Steffen Herbold , Florian Lemmerich

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-09 Azza Jenane , Nassim Walha , Lukas Kuhn , Florian Buettner

Saliency post-hoc explainability methods are important tools for understanding increasingly complex NLP models. While these methods can reflect the model's reasoning, they may not align with human intuition, making the explanations not…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-08-20 Lucas E. Resck , Marcos M. Raimundo , Jorge Poco

Machine learning models are primarily judged by predictive performance, especially in applied settings. Once a model reaches high accuracy, its explanation is often assumed to be correct and trustworthy. This assumption raises an overlooked…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Chama Bensmail

The predictive uncertainty of machine translation (MT) models is typically used as a quality estimation proxy. In this work, we posit that apart from confidently translating when a single correct translation exists, models should also…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Ieva Raminta Staliūnaitė , Julius Cheng , Andreas Vlachos

High complexity models are notorious in machine learning for overfitting, a phenomenon in which models well represent data but fail to generalize an underlying data generating process. A typical procedure for circumventing overfitting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-11 James Schmidt

The combination of uninterpreted function symbols and universal quantification occurs in many applications of automated reasoning, for example, due to their ability to reason about arrays. Yet the satisfiability of such formulas is, in…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Stefan Ratschan , Anggha Nugraha , Mikoláš Janota , Marek Dančo

Probing techniques have shown promise in revealing how LLMs encode human-interpretable concepts, particularly when applied to curated datasets. However, the factors governing a dataset's suitability for effective probe training are not…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Yongjie Wang , Yibo Wang , Xin Zhou , Zhiqi Shen

Explainability has been widely stated as a cornerstone of the responsible and trustworthy use of machine learning models. With the ubiquitous use of Deep Neural Network (DNN) models expanding to risk-sensitive and safety-critical domains,…

This paper investigates the reliability of explanations generated by large language models (LLMs) when prompted to explain their previous output. We evaluate two kinds of such self-explanations - extractive and counterfactual - using three…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Korbinian Randl , John Pavlopoulos , Aron Henriksson , Tony Lindgren

Machine Translation Quality Estimation is a notoriously difficult task, which lessens its usefulness in real-world translation environments. Such scenarios can be improved if quality predictions are accompanied by a measure of uncertainty.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2016-07-01 Daniel Beck , Lucia Specia , Trevor Cohn

Although language model scores are often treated as probabilities, their reliability as probability estimators has mainly been studied through calibration, overlooking other aspects. In particular, it is unclear whether language models…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-01 Eitan Wagner , Yuli Slavutsky , Omri Abend

Accurately estimating uncertainties in neural network predictions is of great importance in building trusted DNNs-based models, and there is an increasing interest in providing accurate uncertainty estimation on many tasks, such as security…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Yukun Ding , Jinglan Liu , Jinjun Xiong , Yiyu Shi

A popular approach to unveiling the black box of neural NLP models is to leverage saliency methods, which assign scalar importance scores to each input component. A common practice for evaluating whether an interpretability method is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-12 Josip Jukić , Martin Tutek , Jan Šnajder

Despite demonstrating impressive capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) still often struggle to accurately express the factual knowledge they possess, especially in cases where the LLMs' knowledge boundaries are ambiguous. To improve…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-26 Boyang Xue , Fei Mi , Qi Zhu , Hongru Wang , Rui Wang , Sheng Wang , Erxin Yu , Xuming Hu , Kam-Fai Wong

Traditional approaches to ensure group fairness in algorithmic decision making aim to equalize ``total'' error rates for different subgroups in the population. In contrast, we argue that the fairness approaches should instead focus only on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-11 Junaid Ali , Preethi Lahoti , Krishna P. Gummadi

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

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