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Most off-policy evaluation methods for contextual bandits have focused on the expected outcome of a policy, which is estimated via methods that at best provide only asymptotic guarantees. However, in many applications, the expectation may…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-27 Muhammad Faaiz Taufiq , Jean-Francois Ton , Rob Cornish , Yee Whye Teh , Arnaud Doucet

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) is a critical challenge in robust decision-making that seeks to assess the performance of a new policy using data collected under a different policy. However, the existing OPE methodologies suffer from several…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-11 Muhammad Faaiz Taufiq

Reinforcement Learning aims at identifying and evaluating efficient control policies from data. In many real-world applications, the learner is not allowed to experiment and cannot gather data in an online manner (this is the case when…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Daniele Foffano , Alessio Russo , Alexandre Proutiere

Conformal prediction provides a pivotal and flexible technique for uncertainty quantification by constructing prediction sets with a predefined coverage rate. Many online conformal prediction methods have been developed to address data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-25 Dongjian Hu , Junxi Wu , Shu-Tao Xia , Changliang Zou

Conformal prediction (CP) quantifies the uncertainty of machine learning models by constructing sets of plausible outputs. These sets are constructed by leveraging a so-called conformity score, a quantity computed using the input point of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-07 Michal Klein , Louis Bethune , Eugene Ndiaye , Marco Cuturi

Off-policy evaluation is critical in a number of applications where new policies need to be evaluated offline before online deployment. Most existing methods focus on the expected return, define the target parameter through averaging and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-10 Yingying Zhang , Chengchun Shi , Shikai Luo

Multi-agent policy gradient (MAPG) methods recently witness vigorous progress. However, there is a significant performance discrepancy between MAPG methods and state-of-the-art multi-agent value-based approaches. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-06 Yihan Wang , Beining Han , Tonghan Wang , Heng Dong , Chongjie Zhang

Uncertainty-aware prediction is essential for safe motion planning, especially when using learned models to forecast the behavior of surrounding agents. Conformal prediction is a statistical tool often used to produce uncertainty-aware…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-19 Allen Emmanuel Binny , Anushri Dixit

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-07 Gauthier Thurin , Kimia Nadjahi , Claire Boyer

We investigate methods to provide safety assurances for autonomous agents that incorporate predictions of other, uncontrolled agents' behavior into their own trajectory planning. Given a learning-based forecasting model that predicts…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-12-14 Anish Muthali , Haotian Shen , Sampada Deglurkar , Michael H. Lim , Rebecca Roelofs , Aleksandra Faust , Claire Tomlin

The problem of on-line off-policy evaluation (OPE) has been actively studied in the last decade due to its importance both as a stand-alone problem and as a module in a policy improvement scheme. However, most Temporal Difference (TD) based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-24 Assaf Hallak , Shie Mannor

A key problem in off-policy Reinforcement Learning (RL) is the mismatch, or distribution shift, between the dataset and the distribution over states and actions visited by the learned policy. This problem is exacerbated in the fully offline…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-28 Melrose Roderick , Gaurav Manek , Felix Berkenkamp , J. Zico Kolter

This paper investigates the problem of online prediction learning, where learning proceeds continuously as the agent interacts with an environment. The predictions made by the agent are contingent on a particular way of behaving,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-11-08 Sina Ghiassian , Andrew Patterson , Martha White , Richard S. Sutton , Adam White

Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) provides a framework for problems involving multiple interacting agents. Despite apparent similarity to the single-agent case, multi-agent problems are often harder to train and analyze…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-04 Michał Zawalski , Błażej Osiński , Henryk Michalewski , Piotr Miłoś

This paper extends off-policy reinforcement learning to the multi-agent case in which a set of networked agents communicating with their neighbors according to a time-varying graph collaboratively evaluates and improves a target policy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-20 Wesley Suttle , Zhuoran Yang , Kaiqing Zhang , Zhaoran Wang , Tamer Basar , Ji Liu

Conformal prediction (CP) constructs uncertainty sets for model outputs with finite-sample coverage guarantees. A candidate output is included in the prediction set if its non-conformity score is not considered extreme relative to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-20 Eugene Ndiaye

For an autonomous agent, executing a poor policy may be costly or even dangerous. For such agents, it is desirable to determine confidence interval lower bounds on the performance of any given policy without executing said policy. Current…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-09-25 Josiah P. Hanna , Peter Stone , Scott Niekum

Coalitional control is concerned with the management of multi-agent systems where cooperation cannot be taken for granted (due to, e.g., market competition, logistics). This paper proposes a model predictive control (MPC) framework aimed at…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-08-03 Filiberto Fele , Ezequiel Debada , José M. Maestre , Eduardo F. Camacho

Conformal Prediction (CP) stands out as a robust framework for uncertainty quantification, which is crucial for ensuring the reliability of predictions. However, common CP methods heavily rely on data exchangeability, a condition often…

Online planning for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provides efficient techniques for robot decision-making under uncertainty. However, existing methods fall short of preventing safety violations in dynamic…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Shili Sheng , Pian Yu , David Parker , Marta Kwiatkowska , Lu Feng
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