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Predictive business process monitoring increasingly leverages sophisticated prediction models. Although sophisticated models achieve consistently higher prediction accuracy than simple models, one major drawback is their lack of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-02-25 Tsung-Hao Huang , Andreas Metzger , Klaus Pohl

LLMs can be unpredictable, as even slight alterations to the prompt can cause the output to change in unexpected ways. Thus, the ability of models to accurately explain their behavior is critical, especially in high-stakes settings. One…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-26 Marvin Limpijankit , Yanda Chen , Melanie Subbiah , Nicholas Deas , Kathleen McKeown

Explaining the predictions of a deep neural network is a nontrivial task, yet high-quality explanations for predictions are often a prerequisite for practitioners to trust these models. Counterfactual explanations aim to explain predictions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-16 Andreas Abildtrup Hansen , Paraskevas Pegios , Anna Calissano , Aasa Feragen

Counterfactual thinking is a crucial yet challenging topic for artificial intelligence to learn knowledge from data and ultimately improve performance for new scenarios. Many research works, including the Potential Outcome Model (POM) and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Mingyu Kang , Duxin Chen , Ziyuan Pu , Jianxi Gao , Wenwu Yu

In this paper, we demonstrate the feasibility of alterfactual explanations for black box image classifiers. Traditional explanation mechanisms from the field of Counterfactual Thinking are a widely-used paradigm for Explainable Artificial…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-05-10 Silvan Mertes , Tobias Huber , Christina Karle , Katharina Weitz , Ruben Schlagowski , Cristina Conati , Elisabeth André

Counterfactual explanations are an emerging tool to enhance interpretability of deep learning models. Given a sample, these methods seek to find and display to the user similar samples across the decision boundary. In this paper, we propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-22 Cassio F. Dantas , Diego Marcos , Dino Ienco

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time from observational data is relevant for many applications (e.g., personalized medicine). Yet, state-of-the-art methods build upon simple long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, thus rendering…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

Sequential Recommender Systems (SRSs) have demonstrated remarkable effectiveness in capturing users' evolving preferences. However, their inherent complexity as "black box" models poses significant challenges for explainability. This work…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-08-06 Domiziano Scarcelli , Filippo Betello , Giuseppe Perelli , Fabrizio Silvestri , Gabriele Tolomei

Counterfactual explanations provide human-understandable reasoning for AI-made decisions by describing minimal changes to input features that would alter a model's prediction. To be truly useful in practice, such explanations must be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-15 Asiful Arefeen , Shovito Barua Soumma , Hassan Ghasemzadeh

Counterfactuals and counterfactual reasoning underpin numerous techniques for auditing and understanding artificial intelligence (AI) systems. The traditional paradigm for counterfactual reasoning in this literature is the interventional…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-01-26 Lucius E. J. Bynum , Joshua R. Loftus , Julia Stoyanovich

Explainability for machine learning models has gained considerable attention within the research community given the importance of deploying more reliable machine-learning systems. In computer vision applications, generative counterfactual…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-12 Pau Rodriguez , Massimo Caccia , Alexandre Lacoste , Lee Zamparo , Issam Laradji , Laurent Charlin , David Vazquez

Estimating counterfactual distributions under interventions is central to treatment risk assessment and counterfactual generation tasks. Existing approaches model the counterfactual distribution as a standalone generative target, without…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-11 Hugh Dance , Johnny Xi , Peter Orbanz , Benjamin Bloem-Reddy

In the past decade, we have experienced a massive boom in the usage of digital solutions in higher education. Due to this boom, large amounts of data have enabled advanced data analysis methods to support learners and examine learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-31 Mustafa Cavus , Jakub Kuzilek

Explainable AI (xAI) interventions aim to improve interpretability for complex black-box models, not only to improve user trust but also as a means to extract scientific insights from high-performing predictive systems. In molecular…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-04 Jonas Teufel , Annika Leinweber , Pascal Friederich

Data-driven decision making frequently relies on predicting counterfactual outcomes. In practice, researchers commonly train counterfactual prediction models on a source dataset to inform decisions on a possibly separate target population.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-07 Keith Barnatchez , Kevin P. Josey , Rachel C. Nethery , Giovanni Parmigiani

Counterfactual instances offer human-interpretable insight into the local behaviour of machine learning models. We propose a general framework to generate sparse, in-distribution counterfactual model explanations which match a desired…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-26 Arnaud Van Looveren , Janis Klaise , Giovanni Vacanti , Oliver Cobb

Lewis' theory of counterfactuals is the foundation of many contemporary notions of causality. In this paper, we extend this theory in the temporal direction to enable symbolic counterfactual reasoning on infinite sequences, such as…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2023-06-16 Bernd Finkbeiner , Julian Siber

Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has helped elucidate the internal mechanisms of machine learning algorithms, bolstering their reliability by demonstrating the basis of their predictions. Several XAI models consider causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-30 Daisuke Takahashi , Shohei Shimizu , Takuma Tanaka

In recent years, there has been an explosion of AI research on counterfactual explanations as a solution to the problem of eXplainable AI (XAI). These explanations seem to offer technical, psychological and legal benefits over other…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-03 Mark T Keane , Eoin M Kenny , Eoin Delaney , Barry Smyth

Currently, machine learning is widely used across various domains, including time series data analysis. However, some machine learning models function as black boxes, making interpretability a critical concern. One approach to address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Keita Kinjo