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The performance of a language model has been shown to be effectively modeled as a power-law in its parameter count. Here we study the scaling behaviors of Routing Networks: architectures that conditionally use only a subset of their…

Modern LLMs scale at test-time, e.g. via repeated sampling, where inference cost grows with model size and the number of samples. This creates a trade-off that pretraining scaling laws, such as Chinchilla, do not address. We present…

Modern foundation models rely heavily on using scaling laws to guide crucial training decisions. Researchers often extrapolate the optimal architecture and hyper parameters settings from smaller training runs by describing the relationship…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-27 Margaret Li , Sneha Kudugunta , Luke Zettlemoyer

Precise estimation of downstream performance in large language models (LLMs) prior to training is essential for guiding their development process. Scaling laws analysis utilizes the statistics of a series of significantly smaller sampling…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-09 Yangyi Chen , Binxuan Huang , Yifan Gao , Zhengyang Wang , Jingfeng Yang , Heng Ji

Neural scaling laws have driven the field's ever-expanding exponential growth in parameters, data and compute. While scaling behaviors for pretraining losses and discriminative benchmarks are well established, generative benchmarks such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Rylan Schaeffer , Noam Levi , Brando Miranda , Sanmi Koyejo

As we scale to more massive machine learning models, the frequent synchronization demands inherent in data-parallel approaches create significant slowdowns, posing a critical challenge to further scaling. Recent work develops an approach…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-14 Zachary Charles , Gabriel Teston , Lucio Dery , Keith Rush , Nova Fallen , Zachary Garrett , Arthur Szlam , Arthur Douillard

Large foundation models are typically trained on data from multiple domains, with the data mixture--the proportion of each domain used--playing a critical role in model performance. The standard approach to selecting this mixture relies on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-03 Mustafa Shukor , Louis Bethune , Dan Busbridge , David Grangier , Enrico Fini , Alaaeldin El-Nouby , Pierre Ablin

This paper derives "scaling laws"--empirical relationships between the training compute of Large Language Models (LLMs) and their performance--for economic outcomes. In a preregistered online experiment, 300 professional translators…

General Economics · Economics 2024-12-10 Ali Merali

Training compute is increasingly outpacing the availability of high-quality data. This shifts the central challenge from optimal compute allocation to extracting maximum value from limited data. The widely adopted Chinchilla scaling law…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Justin Lovelace , Christian Belardi , Srivatsa Kundurthy , Shriya Sudhakar , Kilian Q. Weinberger

As language models scale, the amount of data they require grows -- yet many target data sources, such as low-resource languages or specialized domains, are inherently limited in size. A common strategy is to mix this scarce but valuable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Anastasiia Sedova , Skyler Seto , Natalie Schluter , Pierre Ablin

Neural scaling laws describe how model performance improves as a power law with size, but existing work focuses on models above 100M parameters. The sub-20M regime -- where TinyML and edge AI operate -- remains unexamined. We train 90…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Mohammed Alnemari , Rizwan Qureshi , Nader Begrazadah

Scaling laws aim to accurately predict model performance across different scales. Existing scaling-law studies almost exclusively rely on cross-entropy as the evaluation metric. However, cross-entropy provides only a partial view of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Baoqing Yue , Jinyuan Zhou , Zixi Wei , Jingtao Zhan , Qingyao Ai , Yiqun Liu

We study the empirical scaling laws of a family of encoder-decoder autoregressive transformer models on the task of joint motion forecasting and planning in the autonomous driving domain. Using a 500 thousand hours driving dataset, we…

Reasoning is an integral part of many tasks performed by language models (LMs). However, the effects of scaling model sizes and data on reasoning abilities at pretraining time remain understudied. To rigorously investigate this problem, we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Xinyi Wang , Shawn Tan , Shenbo Xu , Mingyu Jin , William Yang Wang , Rameswar Panda , Yikang Shen

Scaling laws describe how language models improve with additional data, parameters, and compute. While widely used, they are typically measured on aggregate test sets. Aggregate evaluations yield clean trends but average over heterogeneous…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-16 William Held , David Hall , Percy Liang , Diyi Yang

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-21 David Brandfonbrener , Nikhil Anand , Nikhil Vyas , Eran Malach , Sham Kakade

While protein language models (pLMs) have transformed biological research, the scaling laws governing their improvement remain underexplored. By adapting methodologies from NLP scaling laws, we investigated the optimal ratio between model…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2024-06-27 Yaiza Serrano , Álvaro Ciudad , Alexis Molina

Uncovering early-stage metrics that reflect final model performance is one core principle for large-scale pretraining. The existing scaling law demonstrates the power-law correlation between pretraining loss and training flops, which serves…

Scaling laws for language models have often focused on finding the optimal model size and token count for training from scratch. However, achieving this optimal balance requires significant compute resources due to the extensive data…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Roseval Malaquias Junior , Ramon Pires , Thales Sales Almeida , Kenzo Sakiyama , Roseli A. F. Romero , Rodrigo Nogueira

Scaling laws for large language models (LLMs) have provided useful guidance in training ever larger models for predictable performance gains. Time series forecasting shares a similar sequential structure to language, and is amenable to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-09 Thomas D. P. Edwards , James Alvey , Justin Alsing , Nam H. Nguyen , Benjamin D. Wandelt