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Statistical mechanics has proven to be able to capture the fundamental rules underlying phenomena of social aggregation and opinion dynamics, well studied in disciplines like sociology and psychology. This approach is based on the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-03-09 Daniele Vilone , Timoteo Carletti , Franco Bagnoli , Andrea Guazzini

Mastering the dynamics of social influence requires separating, in a database of information propagation traces, the genuine causal processes from temporal correlation, i.e., homophily and other spurious causes. However, most studies to…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2018-08-31 Francesco Bonchi , Francesco Gullo , Bud Mishra , Daniele Ramazzotti

How should social scientists understand and communicate the uncertainty of statistically estimated causal effects? I propose we utilize the posterior distribution of a causal effect and present the probability of the effect being greater…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-15 Akisato Suzuki

We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Simon Dirmeier , Antonietta Mira

In causal inference, and specifically in the \textit{Causes of Effects} problem, one is interested in how to use statistical evidence to understand causation in an individual case, and so how to assess the so-called {\em probability of…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-23 Fabio Corradi , Monica Musio

The problem of individualization is recognized as crucial in almost every field. Identifying causes of effects in specific events is likewise essential for accurate decision making. However, such estimates invoke counterfactual…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-04 Scott Mueller , Ang Li , Judea Pearl

Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-24 Maximilian Ilse , Patrick Forré , Max Welling , Joris M. Mooij

Scientists frequently generalize population level causal quantities such as average treatment effect from a source population to a target population. When the causal effects are heterogeneous, differences in subject characteristics between…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-16 Rui Chen , Guanhua Chen , Menggang Yu

Many methods for causal inference generate directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that formalize causal relations between $n$ variables. Given the joint distribution on all these variables, the DAG contains all information about how intervening on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-01-29 Dominik Janzing , David Balduzzi , Moritz Grosse-Wentrup , Bernhard Schölkopf

Understanding how much each variable contributes to an outcome is a central question across disciplines. A causal view of explainability is favorable for its ability in uncovering underlying mechanisms and generalizing to new contexts.…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-09 Weihan Zhang , Zijun Gao

This paper presents a simple model for repeated measurement of a quantum system: the evolution of a free particle, simulated by discretising the particle's position. This model is easily simulated by computer and provides a useful arena to…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-11-06 David Wallace

One of the main tasks of causal inference is estimating well-defined causal parameters. One of the main causal parameters is the average causal effect (ACE) - the expected value of the individual level causal effects in the target…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-17 Fernando Pires Hartwig

Regular variation provides a convenient theoretical framework to study large events. In the multivariate setting, the dependence structure of the positive extremes is characterized by a measure - the spectral measure - defined on the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-24 Meyer Nicolas , Olivier Wintenberger

Causal mediation analysis concerns the pathways through which a treatment affects an outcome. While most of the mediation literature focuses on settings with a single mediator, a flourishing line of research has examined settings involving…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-12 Xiang Zhou

In this paper, we investigate the distributions of random couples $(X,Y)$ with $X$ real-valued such that any non-negative integrable random variable $f(X)$ can be represented as a conditional expectation, $f(X)=\mathbb{E}[g(Y)|X]$, for some…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-08 Julien Guyon , Thibault Jeannin , Benjamin Jourdain

We study the causal effect with a functional treatment variable, where practical applications often arise in neuroscience, biomedical sciences, etc. Previous research concerning the effect of a functional variable on an outcome is typically…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Ruoxu Tan , Wei Huang , Zheng Zhang , Guosheng Yin

We consider the problem of estimating a causal effect in a multi-domain setting. The causal effect of interest is confounded by an unobserved confounder and can change between the different domains. We assume that we have access to a proxy…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Manuel Iglesias-Alonso , Felix Schur , Julius von Kügelgen , Jonas Peters

The Price equation partitions the change in the expected value of a population measure. The first component describes the partial change caused by altered frequencies. The second component describes the partial change caused by altered…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-03-23 Steven A. Frank , William Godsoe

The incorporation of causal inference in mediation analysis has led to theoretical and methodological advancements -- effect definitions with causal interpretation, clarification of assumptions required for effect identification, and an…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-31 Trang Quynh Nguyen , Ian Schmid , Elizabeth A. Stuart

When the causal relationship between X and Y is specified by a structural equation, the causal effect of X on Y is the expected rate of change of Y with respect to changes in X, when all other variables are kept fixed. This causal effect is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-13 Wing Hung Wong