English

On the surjectivity of the conditional expectation given a real random variable

Probability 2025-08-08 v2

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the distributions of random couples (X,Y)(X,Y) with XX real-valued such that any non-negative integrable random variable f(X)f(X) can be represented as a conditional expectation, f(X)=E[g(Y)X]f(X)=\mathbb{E}[g(Y)|X], for some non-negative measurable function gg. It turns out that this representation property is related to the smallness of the support of the conditional law of XX given YY, and in particular fails when this conditional law almost surely has a non-zero absolutely continuous component with respect to the Lebesgue measure. We give a sufficient condition for the representation property and check that it is also necessary under some additional assumptions (for instance when XX or YY are discrete). We also exhibit a rather involved example where the representation property holds but the sufficient condition does not. Finally, we discuss a weakened representation property where the non-negativity of gg is relaxed. This study is motivated by the calibration of time-discretized path-dependent volatility models to the implied volatility surface.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2508.02416,
  title  = {On the surjectivity of the conditional expectation given a real random variable},
  author = {Julien Guyon and Thibault Jeannin and Benjamin Jourdain},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2508.02416},
  year   = {2025}
}
R2 v1 2026-07-01T04:33:20.369Z