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We develop a model to predict consumer default based on deep learning. We show that the model consistently outperforms standard credit scoring models, even though it uses the same data. Our model is interpretable and is able to provide a…

General Economics · Economics 2019-10-07 Stefania Albanesi , Domonkos F. Vamossy

The use of credit cards has recently increased, creating an essential need for credit card assessment methods to minimize potential risks. This study investigates the utilization of machine learning (ML) models for credit card default…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-17 Anas Arram , Masri Ayob , Musatafa Abbas Abbood Albadr , Alaa Sulaiman , Dheeb Albashish

In this work we build a stack of machine learning models aimed at composing a state-of-the-art credit rating and default prediction system, obtaining excellent out-of-sample performances. Our approach is an excursion through the most recent…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-08-05 A. R. Provenzano , D. Trifirò , A. Datteo , L. Giada , N. Jean , A. Riciputi , G. Le Pera , M. Spadaccino , L. Massaron , C. Nordio

Accurate prediction of future loan defaults is a critical capability for financial institutions that provide lines of credit. For institutions that issue and manage extensive loan volumes, even a slight improvement in default prediction…

This study conducts a benchmarking study, comparing 23 different statistical and machine learning methods in a credit scoring application. In order to do so, the models' performance is evaluated over four different data sets in combination…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-07-31 Anna Stelzer

Predicting potential credit default accounts in advance is challenging. Traditional statistical techniques typically cannot handle large amounts of data and the dynamic nature of fraud and humans. To tackle this problem, recent research has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-04 Sheikh Rabiul Islam , William Eberle , Sheikh Khaled Ghafoor

Predicting the probability of default (PD) of prospective loans is a critical objective for financial institutions. In recent years, machine learning (ML) algorithms have achieved remarkable success across a wide variety of prediction…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-25 Adrian Iulian Cristescu , Matteo Giordano

Machine learning plays an essential role in preventing financial losses in the banking industry. Perhaps the most pertinent prediction task that can result in billions of dollars in losses each year is the assessment of credit risk (i.e.,…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-01 Jillian M. Clements , Di Xu , Nooshin Yousefi , Dmitry Efimov

This paper presents PDx, an adaptive, machine learning operations (MLOps) driven decision system for forecasting credit risk using probability of default (PD) modeling in digital lending. While conventional PD models prioritize predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Sultan Amed , Chan Yu Hang , Sayantan Banerjee

Credit default poses significant challenges to financial institutions and consumers, resulting in substantial financial losses and diminished trust. As such, credit default risk management has been a critical topic in the financial…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Yuanhong Wu , Jingyan Xu , Wei Ye , Christina Schweikert , D. Frank Hsu

With the development of the financial industry, credit default prediction, as an important task in financial risk management, has received increasing attention. Traditional credit default prediction methods mostly rely on machine learning…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-12-25 Yuhan Wang , Zhen Xu , Yue Yao , Jinsong Liu , Jiating Lin

Credit scoring is vital in the financial industry, assessing the risk of lending to credit card applicants. Traditional credit scoring methods face challenges with large datasets and data imbalance between creditworthy and non-creditworthy…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-09-26 Kejian Tong , Zonglin Han , Yanxin Shen , Yujian Long , Yijing Wei

Since the 1990s, there have been significant advances in the technology space and the e-Commerce area, leading to an exponential increase in demand for cashless payment solutions. This has led to increased demand for credit cards, bringing…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-10-06 K. S. Naik

Banks are important for the development of economies in any financial ecosystem through consumer and business loans. Lending, however, presents risks; thus, banks have to determine the applicant's financial position to reduce the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-14 F M Ahosanul Haque , Md. Mahedi Hassan

This study focuses on the problem of credit default prediction, builds a modeling framework based on machine learning, and conducts comparative experiments on a variety of mainstream classification algorithms. Through preprocessing, feature…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Shiqi Yang , Ziyi Huang , Wengran Xiao , Xinyu Shen

Whereas traditional credit scoring tends to employ only individual borrower- or loan-level predictors, it has been acknowledged for some time that connections between borrowers may result in default risk propagating over a network. In this…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-26 Sahab Zandi , Kamesh Korangi , María Óskarsdóttir , Christophe Mues , Cristián Bravo

Machine learning has opened up new tools for financial fraud detection. Using a sample of annotated transactions, a machine learning classification algorithm learns to detect frauds. With growing credit card transaction volumes and rising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-26 Gayan K. Kulatilleke

Mortgage default prediction is a core task in financial risk management, and machine learning models are increasingly used to estimate default probabilities and provide interpretable signals for downstream decisions. In real-world mortgage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Xianghong Hu , Tianning Xu , Ying Chen , Shuai Wang

The existence of asymmetric information has always been a major concern for financial institutions. Financial intermediaries such as commercial banks need to study the quality of potential borrowers in order to make their decision on…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-07-05 Jinglun Yao , Maxime Levy-Chapira , Mamikon Margaryan

Logistic Regression and Support Vector Machine algorithms, together with Linear and Non-Linear Deep Neural Networks, are applied to lending data in order to replicate lender acceptance of loans and predict the likelihood of default of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-07-04 Jeremy D. Turiel , Tomaso Aste
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