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Gas is the transaction-fee metering system of the Ethereum network. Users of the network are required to select a gas price for submission with their transaction, creating a risk of overpaying or delayed/unprocessed transactions in this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-16 Conall Butler , Martin Crane

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, long short term memory (LSTM), one kind of recurrent neural network (RNN), has been widely applied in time series prediction. Like RNN, Transformer is designed to handle the sequential…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2023-09-21 Paul Bilokon , Yitao Qiu

The paper studies the linear model for Bitcoin price which includes regression features based on Bitcoin currency statistics, mining processes, Google search trends, Wikipedia pages visits. The pattern of deviation of regression model…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-01-11 Bohdan M. Pavlyshenko

Prediction of stock prices has been a crucial and challenging task, especially in the case of highly volatile digital currencies such as Bitcoin. This research examineS the potential of using neural network models, namely LSTMs and GRUs, to…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-15 Ali Mohammadjafari

This paper studies how to forecast daily closing price series of Bitcoin, using data on prices and volumes of prior days. Bitcoin price behaviour is still largely unexplored, presenting new opportunities. We compared our results with two…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-01-07 Nicola Uras , Lodovica Marchesi , Michele Marchesi , Roberto Tonelli

This paper applies a recurrent neural network, the LSTM, to forecast inflation. This is an appealing model for time series as it processes each time step sequentially and explicitly learns dynamic dependencies. The paper also explores the…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-10-03 Livia Paranhos

In this paper, we discuss the method of Bayesian regression and its efficacy for predicting price variation of Bitcoin, a recently popularized virtual, cryptographic currency. Bayesian regression refers to utilizing empirical data as proxy…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-10-07 Devavrat Shah , Kang Zhang

Forecasting stock and cryptocurrency prices is challenging due to high volatility and non-stationarity, influenced by factors like economic changes and market sentiment. Previous research shows that Echo State Networks (ESNs) can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-08 Mansi Sharma , Enrico Sartor , Marc Cavazza , Helmut Prendinger

Machine learning and AI-assisted trading have attracted growing interest for the past few years. Here, we use this approach to test the hypothesis that the inefficiency of the cryptocurrency market can be exploited to generate abnormal…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-04-09 Laura Alessandretti , Abeer ElBahrawy , Luca Maria Aiello , Andrea Baronchelli

In this paper we develop a linear expectile hidden Markov model for the analysis of cryptocurrency time series in a risk management framework. The methodology proposed allows to focus on extreme returns and describe their temporal evolution…

Applications · Statistics 2024-01-19 Beatrice Foroni , Luca Merlo , Lea Petrella

Bitcoin has attracted attention from different market participants due to unpredictable price patterns. Sometimes, the price has exhibited big jumps. Bitcoin prices have also had extreme, unexpected crashes. We test the predictive power of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-15 Andrés García-Medina , Toan Luu Duc Huynh3

Digital currencies have become popular in the last decade due to their non-dependency and decentralized nature. The price of these currencies has seen a lot of fluctuations at times, which has increased the need for prediction. As their…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-01-24 Ramin Mousa , Meysam Afrookhteh , Hooman Khaloo , Amir Ali Bengari , Gholamreza Heidary

The cryptocurrency market is amongst the fastest-growing of all the financial markets in the world. Unlike traditional markets, such as equities, foreign exchange and commodities, cryptocurrency market is considered to have larger…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-06 Fan Fang , Waichung Chung , Carmine Ventre , Michail Basios , Leslie Kanthan , Lingbo Li , Fan Wu

Predicting the trend of Bitcoin, a highly volatile cryptocurrency, remains a challenging task. Accurate forecasting holds immense potential for investors and market participants dealing with High Frequency Trading systems. The purpose of…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-07-11 Zeinab Shahsafdari , Ahmad Kalhor

The cryptocurrency ecosystem has been the centre of discussion on many social media platforms, following its noted volatility and varied opinions. Twitter is rapidly being utilised as a news source and a medium for bitcoin discussion. Our…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-03-17 Haritha GB , Sahana N. B

This study proposes a deep learning model based on the combination of convolutional neural network (CNN) and bidirectional long short-term memory network (BiLSTM) for discriminant analysis of financial systemic risk. The model first uses…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Yu Cheng , Zhen Xu , Yuan Chen , Yuhan Wang , Zhenghao Lin , Jinsong Liu

This paper studies the forecasting ability of cryptocurrency time series. This study is about the four most capitalized cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Ripple. Different Bayesian models are compared, including models with…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-09-17 Rick Bohte , Luca Rossini

Probabilistic time series forecasting is crucial in many application domains such as retail, ecommerce, finance, or biology. With the increasing availability of large volumes of data, a number of neural architectures have been proposed for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-15 Olivier Sprangers , Sebastian Schelter , Maarten de Rijke

We study the problem of the intraday short-term volume forecasting in cryptocurrency exchange markets. The predictions are built by using transaction and order book data from different markets where the exchange takes place.…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2020-12-03 Nino Antulov-Fantulin , Tian Guo , Fabrizio Lillo

We introduce the Momentum Transformer, an attention-based deep-learning architecture, which outperforms benchmark time-series momentum and mean-reversion trading strategies. Unlike state-of-the-art Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-24 Kieran Wood , Sven Giegerich , Stephen Roberts , Stefan Zohren