Related papers: Jump detection in high-frequency order prices
Sequential change-point detection when the distribution parameters are unknown is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. When the post-change parameters are unknown, we consider a set of detection procedures based on…
Starting from a basic model in which the dynamic of the transaction prices is a geometric Brownian motion disrupted by a microstructure white noise, corresponding to the random alternation of bids and asks, we propose moment-based…
Let $X$ be the unique normal martingale such that $X_0=0$ and \[\mathrm{d}[X]_t=(1-t-X_{t-}) \mathrm{d}X_t+\mathrm{d}t\] and let $Y_t:=X_t+t$ for all $t\geq 0$; the semimartingale $Y$ arises in quantum probability, where it is the…
Plasticity is one of the most important properties of the nervous system, which enables animals to adjust their behavior to the ever-changing external environment. Changes in synaptic efficacy between neurons constitute one of the major…
The estimation of the volatility with high-frequency data is plagued by the presence of microstructure noise, which leads to biased measures. Alternative estimators have been developed and tested either on specific structures of the noise…
We provide a general probabilistic framework within which we establish scaling limits for a class of continuous-time stochastic volatility models with self-exciting jump dynamics. In the scaling limit, the joint dynamics of asset returns…
This paper proposes a novel model of financial prices where: (i) prices are discrete; (ii) prices change in continuous time; (iii) a high proportion of price changes are reversed in a fraction of a second. Our model is analytically…
We consider a dynamic market model of liquidity where unmatched buy and sell limit orders are stored in order books. The resulting net demand surface constitutes the sole input to the model. We prove that generically there is no arbitrage…
In this paper, we consider a piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP), with known flow and deterministic transition measure, and unknown jump rate $\lambda$. To estimate nonparametrically the jump rate, we first construct an adaptive…
Predicting the intraday stock jumps is a significant but challenging problem in finance. Due to the instantaneity and imperceptibility characteristics of intraday stock jumps, relevant studies on their predictability remain limited. This…
In this paper, we study the contextual dynamic pricing problem where the market value of a product is linear in its observed features plus some market noise. Products are sold one at a time, and only a binary response indicating success or…
We examine the dynamics of the bid and ask queues of a limit order book and their relationship with the intensity of trade arrivals. In particular, we study the probability of price movements and trade arrivals as a function of the quote…
The primary objective of this paper is to conceive and develop a new methodology to detect notable changes in liquidity within an order-driven market. We study a market liquidity model which allows us to dynamically quantify the level of…
We propose an original and general NOn-SEgmental (NOSE) approach for the detection of multiple change-points. NOSE identifies change-points by the non-negligibility of posterior estimates of the jump heights. Alternatively, under the…
In the framework of nonparametric multivariate function estimation we are interested in structural adaptation. We assume that the function to be estimated possesses the single-index structure where neither the link function nor the index…
This paper is concerned with asymptotic behavior of a variety of functionals of increments of continuous semimartingales. Sampling times are assumed to follow a rather general discretization scheme. If an underlying semimartingale is…
This paper investigates real-time detection of spoofing activity in limit order books, focusing on cryptocurrency centralized exchanges. We first introduce novel order flow variables based on multi-scale Hawkes processes that account both…
Consider a target moving at a constant velocity on a unit-circumference circle, starting at an arbitrary location. To acquire the target, any region of the circle can be probed to obtain a noisy measurement of the target's presence, where…
We conduct an extensive evaluation of price jump tests based on high-frequency financial data. After providing a concise review of multiple alternative tests, we document the size and power of all tests in a range of empirically relevant…
We consider the problem of adaptive estimation of the regression function in a framework where we replace ergodicity assumptions (such as independence or mixing) by another structural assumption on the model. Namely, we propose adaptive…