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Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful probabilistic modeling technique with built-in uncertainty quantification. When one has access to multiple correlated simulations (tasks), it is common to fit a multitask GP (MTGP) surrogate…
Gaussian process regression is a powerful method for predicting states based on given data. It has been successfully applied for probabilistic predictions of structural systems to quantify, for example, the crack growth in mechanical…
We introduce new Gaussian Process (GP) high-order approximations to linear operations that are frequently used in various numerical methods. Our method employs the kernel-based GP regression modeling, a non-parametric Bayesian approach to…
Forecasting models that are trained across sets of many time series, known as Global Forecasting Models (GFM), have shown recently promising results in forecasting competitions and real-world applications, outperforming many…
We apply Gaussian process (GP) regression, which provides a powerful non-parametric probabilistic method of relating inputs to outputs, to survival data consisting of time-to-event and covariate measurements. In this context, the covariates…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are Bayesian nonparametric models for function approximation with principled predictive uncertainty estimates. Deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) are multilayer generalizations of GPs that can represent complex marginal…
Standard Gaussian Process (GP) regression, a powerful machine learning tool, is computationally expensive when it is applied to large datasets, and potentially inaccurate when data points are sparsely distributed in a high-dimensional…
Many datasets are in the form of tables of binned data. Performing regression on these data usually involves either reading off bin heights, ignoring data from neighbouring bins or interpolating between bins thus over or underestimating the…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are versatile tools that have been successfully employed to solve nonlinear estimation problems in machine learning, but that are rarely used in signal processing. In this tutorial, we present GPs for regression as…
Exact Gaussian Process (GP) regression has O(N^3) runtime for data size N, making it intractable for large N. Many algorithms for improving GP scaling approximate the covariance with lower rank matrices. Other work has exploited structure…
Yield curve forecasting is an important problem in finance. In this work we explore the use of Gaussian Processes in conjunction with a dynamic modeling strategy, much like the Kalman Filter, to model the yield curve. Gaussian Processes…
The fundamental theorem behind financial markets is that stock prices are intrinsically complex and stochastic. One of the complexities is the volatility associated with stock prices. Volatility is a tendency for prices to change…
We develop a Gaussian process ("GP") framework for modeling mortality rates and mortality improvement factors. GP regression is a nonparametric, data-driven approach for determining the spatial dependence in mortality rates and jointly…
While Gaussian processes (GPs) are the method of choice for regression tasks, they also come with practical difficulties, as inference cost scales cubic in time and quadratic in memory. In this paper, we introduce a natural and expressive…
Rich and complex time-series data, such as those generated from engineering systems, financial markets, videos or neural recordings, are now a common feature of modern data analysis. Explaining the phenomena underlying these diverse data…
Fitting a theoretical model to experimental data in a Bayesian manner using Markov chain Monte Carlo typically requires one to evaluate the model thousands (or millions) of times. When the model is a slow-to-compute physics simulation,…
The Gaussian process (GP) model, which has been extensively applied as priors of functions, has demonstrated excellent performance. The specification of a large number of parameters affects the computational efficiency and the feasibility…
Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful kernelized methods for non-parameteric regression used in many applications. However, their use is limited to a few thousand of training samples due to their cubic time complexity. In order to scale GPs…
This paper presents an approach for constrained Gaussian Process (GP) regression where we assume that a set of linear transformations of the process are bounded. It is motivated by machine learning applications for high-consequence…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used as distributions of random effects in linear mixed models, which are fit using the restricted likelihood or the closely-related Bayesian analysis. This article addresses two problems. First, we…