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In this work, we propose a novel framework for large-scale Gaussian process (GP) modeling. Contrary to the global, and local approximations proposed in the literature to address the computational bottleneck with exact GP modeling, we employ…
Forecasting future events is a fundamental challenge for temporal knowledge graphs (tKG). As in real life predicting a mean function is most of the time not sufficient, but the question remains how confident can we be about our prediction?…
This tutorial aims to provide an intuitive introduction to Gaussian process regression (GPR). GPR models have been widely used in machine learning applications due to their representation flexibility and inherent capability to quantify…
Quasi-periodicity refers to a pattern in a function where it appears periodic but has evolving amplitudes over time. This is often the case in practical settings such as the modeling of case counts of infectious disease or the carbon…
Multifidelity models integrate data from multiple sources to produce a single approximator for the underlying process. Dense low-fidelity samples are used to reduce interpolation error, while sparse high-fidelity samples are used to…
Sequential learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is challenging when access to past data is limited, for example, in continual and active learning. In such cases, errors can accumulate over time due to inaccuracies in the posterior,…
Multi-output regression models must exploit dependencies between outputs to maximise predictive performance. The application of Gaussian processes (GPs) to this setting typically yields models that are computationally demanding and have…
Bayesian computational strategies for inference can be inefficient in approximating the posterior distribution in models that exhibit some form of periodicity. This is because the probability mass of the marginal posterior distribution of…
Forecast reconciliation is the post-forecasting process aimed to revise a set of incoherent base forecasts into coherent forecasts in line with given data structures. Most of the point and probabilistic regression-based forecast…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are very widely used for modeling of unknown functions or surfaces in applications ranging from regression to classification to spatial processes. Although there is an increasingly vast literature on applications,…
Gaussian processes (GPs) are widely used for regression and optimization tasks such as Bayesian optimization (BO) due to their expressiveness and principled uncertainty estimates. However, in settings with large datasets corrupted by…
Scalable Gaussian process (GP) inference is essential for sequential decision-making tasks, yet improving GP scalability remains a challenging problem with many open avenues of research. This paper focuses on iterative GPs, where iterative…
As a non-parametric Bayesian model which produces informative predictive distribution, Gaussian process (GP) has been widely used in various fields, like regression, classification and optimization. The cubic complexity of standard GP…
Sparse pseudo-point approximations for Gaussian process (GP) models provide a suite of methods that support deployment of GPs in the large data regime and enable analytic intractabilities to be sidestepped. However, the field lacks a…
Bayesian posterior distributions arising in modern applications, including inverse problems in partial differential equation models in tomography and subsurface flow, are often computationally intractable due to the large computational cost…
A method to reconstruct fields, source strengths and physical parameters based on Gaussian process regression is presented for the case where data are known to fulfill a given linear differential equation with localized sources. The…
Within the past two decades, Gaussian process regression has been increasingly used for modeling dynamical systems due to some beneficial properties such as the bias variance trade-off and the strong connection to Bayesian mathematics. As…
Gaussian processes (GPs) produce good probabilistic models of functions, but most GP kernels require $O((n+m)n^2)$ time, where $n$ is the number of data points and $m$ the number of predictive locations. We present a new kernel that allows…
We propose a novel group of Gaussian Process based algorithms for fast approximate optimal stopping of time series with specific applications to financial markets. We show that structural properties commonly exhibited by financial time…
Gaussian Processes (GPs) provide a general and analytically tractable way of modeling complex time-varying, nonparametric functions. The Automatic Bayesian Covariance Discovery (ABCD) system constructs natural-language description of…