Related papers: Regional inflation analysis using social network d…
Public perceptions and expectations of inflation shape household spending, wage bargaining, and policy support, making them key determinants of macroeconomic outcomes. However, current measures rely on infrequent surveys and offer limited…
We implement traditional machine learning and deep learning methods for global tweets from 2017-2022 to build a high-frequency measure of the public's sentiment index on inflation and analyze its correlation with other online data sources…
In this paper, we forecast euro area inflation and its main components using an econometric model which exploits a massive number of time series on survey expectations for the European Commission's Business and Consumer Survey. To make…
This paper examines the drivers of CPI inflation through the lens of a simple, but computationally intensive machine learning technique. More specifically, it predicts inflation across 20 advanced countries between 2000 and 2021, relying on…
Using a state-of-the-art large language model, we extract forward-looking and context-sensitive signals related to inflation and unemployment in the euro area from millions of Reddit submissions and comments. We develop daily indicators…
Forecasting consumer price index (CPI) inflation is of paramount importance for both academics and policymakers at the central banks. This study introduces a filtered ensemble wavelet neural network (FEWNet) to forecast CPI inflation, which…
In a globalised world, inflation in a given country may be becoming less responsive to domestic economic activity, while being increasingly determined by international conditions. Consequently, understanding the international sources of…
With globalization's rise, economic interdependence's impacts have become a prominent factor affecting personal lives, as well as national and international dynamics. This study examines RT's public diplomacy efforts on its non-Russian…
Social Media is a key aspect of modern society where people share their thoughts, views, feelings and sentiments. Over the last few years, the inflation in popularity of social media has resulted in a monumental increase in data. Users use…
This study explores the integration of large language models (LLMs) into classic inflation nowcasting frameworks, particularly in light of high inflation volatility periods such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose InflaBERT, a BERT-based…
In the era of rapid technological advancement, social media platforms such as Twitter (X) have emerged as indispensable tools for gathering consumer insights, capturing diverse opinions, and understanding public attitudes. This research…
With Twitter's growth and popularity, a huge number of views are shared by users on various topics, making this platform a valuable information source on various political, social, and economic issues. This paper investigates English tweets…
This study presents a novel approach to incorporating news topics and their associated sentiment into predictions of breakeven inflation rate (BEIR) movements for eight countries with mature bond markets. We calibrate five classes of…
Assessing the contribution of various risk factors to future inflation risks was crucial for guiding monetary policy during the recent high inflation period. However, existing methodologies often provide limited insights by focusing solely…
It is commonly believed that patterns of social ties affect individuals' economic status. Here, we translate this concept into an operational definition at the network level, which allows us to infer the economic wellbeing of individuals…
Inflation exhibits state-dependent, skewed, and fat-tailed dynamics that make risk a central concern for monetary policy. Accordingly, inflation risks are distributional and cannot be fully captured by mean-based models. We propose a…
Global concern over food prices and security has been exacerbated by the impacts of armed conflicts such as the Russia Ukraine War, pandemic diseases, and climate change. Traditionally, analyzing global food prices and their associations…
Basic values are concepts or beliefs which pertain to desirable end-states and transcend specific situations. Studying personal values in social media can illuminate how and why societal values evolve especially when the stimuli-based…
This paper considers online reputation and polling systems where individuals make recommendations based on their private observations and recommendations of friends. Such interaction of individuals and their social influence is modelled as…
Images become an important and prevalent way to express users' activities, opinions and emotions. In a social network, individual emotions may be influenced by others, in particular by close friends. We focus on understanding how users…