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Affective computing has matured rapidly in laboratory settings, yet no prior dataset combines (i) months-to-years of duration, (ii) a naturalistic workplace context, (iii) a stable small-team social structure, and (iv) a fully passive…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Xiao Sun

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-31 Gregory Faletto , Jacob Bien

Forecasting electricity prices is a challenging task and an active area of research since the 1990s and the deregulation of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. Although it aims at predicting both spot and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-23 Katarzyna Maciejowska , Bartosz Uniejewski , Rafał Weron

We represent the functioning of the housing market and study the relation between income segregation, income inequality and house prices by introducing a spatial Agent-Based Model (ABM). Differently from traditional models in urban…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2018-10-23 Marco Pangallo , Jean Pierre Nadal , Annick Vignes

We introduce a discrete binary tree for pricing contingent claims with the underlying security prices exhibiting history dependence characteristic of that induced by market microstructure phenomena. Example dependencies considered include…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-29 Davide Lauria , W. Brent Lindquist , Svetlozar T. Rachev , Yuan Hu

In this article, we develop a data assimilation procedure to predict the evolution of epidemics with data uncertainty, with application to the Covid-19 pandemic. We construct a vademecum of solutions by solving the SIR epidemic model for a…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-28 T. Chacon Rebollo , D. Franco Coronil

The recent development of advanced machine learning methods for hybrid models has greatly addressed the need for the correct prediction of electrical prices. This method combines AlexNet and LSTM algorithms, which are used to introduce a…

Bond prices are a reflection of extremely complex market interactions and policies, making prediction of future prices difficult. This task becomes even more challenging due to the dearth of relevant information, and accuracy is not the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-05-04 Swetava Ganguli , Jared Dunnmon

Short term electricity price forecast is essential in competitive power markets, yet electricity price series exhibit high volatility, irregularity, and non-stationarity. This phenomenon is pronounced in the South Australian region of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Wei Lu , Jay Wang , Dingli Duan , Ding Mao , Caiyi Song , John Huang

Conformal prediction provides machine learning models with prediction sets that offer theoretical guarantees, but the underlying assumption of exchangeability limits its applicability to time series data. Furthermore, existing approaches…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-30 Eshant English , Eliot Wong-Toi , Matteo Fontana , Stephan Mandt , Padhraic Smyth , Christoph Lippert

Most existing automatic house price estimation systems rely only on some textual data like its neighborhood area and the number of rooms. The final price is estimated by a human agent who visits the house and assesses it visually. In this…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-09-28 Eman Ahmed , Mohamed Moustafa

Real-world time series data often present recurrent or repetitive patterns and it is often generated in real time, such as transportation passenger volume, network traffic, system resource consumption, energy usage, and human gait.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-05 Ming-Chang Lee , Jia-Chun Lin , Ernst Gunnar Gran

We provide a practical superhedging strategy for the pricing and hedging of the No-Negative-Equity-Guarantee (NNEG) found in Equity-Release Mortgages (ERMs), or reverse mortgages, using a discrete-time model. In contrast to many papers on…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-07 Kevin Engelbrecht , Saul Jacka

Machine Learning for aviation weather is a growing area of research for providing low-cost alternatives for traditional, expensive weather sensors; however, in the area of atmospheric visibility estimation, publicly available datasets,…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-06-27 Chad Mourning , Zhewei Wang , Justin Murray

Detecting anomalies in multivariate time-series data is essential in many real-world applications. Recently, various deep learning-based approaches have shown considerable improvements in time-series anomaly detection. However, existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-31 Kyeong-Joong Jeong , Yong-Min Shin

Little attention has been paid on \underline{EA}rly \underline{R}umor \underline{D}etection (EARD), and EARD performance was evaluated inappropriately on a few datasets where the actual early-stage information is largely missing. To reverse…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-06-06 Fengzhu Zeng , Wei Gao

Real estate contributes significantly to all major economies around the world. In particular, house prices have a direct impact on stakeholders, ranging from house buyers to financing companies. Thus, a plethora of techniques have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-02 Sarkar Snigdha Sarathi Das , Mohammed Eunus Ali , Yuan-Fang Li , Yong-Bin Kang , Timos Sellis

Seasonality has traditionally shaped the U.S. housing market, with activity peaking in spring-summer and declining in autumn-winter. However, recent disruptions, particularly post-COVID-19, raise questions about shift in these patterns.…

General Economics · Economics 2025-11-25 Yihan Hu , Yifei Huang , Weizhao Wang

The successes of deep learning, variational inference, and many other fields have been aided by specialized implementations of reverse-mode automatic differentiation (AD) to compute gradients of mega-dimensional objectives. The AD…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-16 Deniz Oktay , Nick McGreivy , Joshua Aduol , Alex Beatson , Ryan P. Adams

I show that house prices can be modeled using machine learning (kNN and tree-bagging) and a small dataset composed of macro-economic factors (MEF), including an inflation metric (CPI), US treasury rates (10-yr), Gross Domestic Product…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-05-16 Nicolas Houlié