English

JANET: Joint Adaptive predictioN-region Estimation for Time-series

Machine Learning 2025-05-30 v2 Machine Learning Methodology

Abstract

Conformal prediction provides machine learning models with prediction sets that offer theoretical guarantees, but the underlying assumption of exchangeability limits its applicability to time series data. Furthermore, existing approaches struggle to handle multi-step ahead prediction tasks, where uncertainty estimates across multiple future time points are crucial. We propose JANET (Joint Adaptive predictioN-region Estimation for Time-series), a novel framework for constructing conformal prediction regions that are valid for both univariate and multivariate time series. JANET generalises the inductive conformal framework and efficiently produces joint prediction regions with controlled K-familywise error rates, enabling flexible adaptation to specific application needs. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates JANET's superior performance in multi-step prediction tasks across diverse time series datasets, highlighting its potential for reliable and interpretable uncertainty quantification in sequential data.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2407.06390,
  title  = {JANET: Joint Adaptive predictioN-region Estimation for Time-series},
  author = {Eshant English and Eliot Wong-Toi and Matteo Fontana and Stephan Mandt and Padhraic Smyth and Christoph Lippert},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2407.06390},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

Accepted to ECML Journal for Machine Learning Alternate Title: Conformalised Joint Prediction Region for Time Series

R2 v1 2026-06-28T17:33:36.043Z