Related papers: Spatio-temporal modeling for record-breaking tempe…
Extreme events provide relevant insights into the dynamics of climate and their understanding is key for mitigating the impact of climate variability and climate change. By applying large deviation theory to a state-of-the-art Earth system…
The quantification of the interannual component of variability in climatological time series is essential for the assessment and prediction of the El Ni\~{n}o - Southern Oscillation phenomenon. This is achieved by estimating the deviation…
In this paper, we analyze several instrumental records of temperatures at different locations by using new techniques originally developed for the analysis of extreme values of dynamical systems. We show that they have the same recurrence…
Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar…
Climate change has become a significant global concern due to its capacity to cause substantial disruption to daily life by increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Given the rising trend of human interventions in…
Annual maximum temperature data provides crucial insights into the impacts of climate change, especially for regions like India, where temperature variations have significant implications for agriculture, health, and infrastructure. In this…
The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the…
Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting), and characterizing the statistics of events of a given…
Using lightning strikes as an example, two possible schemes are discussed for the attribution of changes in event frequency to climate change, and estimating the cost associated with them. The schemes determine the fraction of events that…
Most contemporary mortality models rely on extrapolating trends or past events. However, population dynamics will be significantly impacted by climate change, notably the influence of temperatures on mortality. In this paper, we introduce a…
Understanding the dynamics of climate extreme is important in its prediction and modeling. In this study, linear trends in percentile, threshold, absolute, and duration based temperature and precipitation extremes indicator were obtained…
Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C,…
Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide due to human activities through fossil fuel emissions and land use changes have increased climate extremes such as heat waves and droughts that have led to and are expected to increase the occurrence of…
In 2023, Sicily faced an escalating issue of uncontrolled fires, necessitating a thorough investigation into their spatio-temporal dynamics. Our study addresses this concern through point process theory. Each wildfire is treated as a unique…
Global climate models aim to reproduce physical processes on a global scale and predict quantities such as temperature given some forcing inputs. We consider climate ensembles made of collections of such runs with different initial…
The study of records in the Linear Drift Model (LDM) has attracted much attention recently due to applications in several fields. In the present paper we study $\delta$-records in the LDM, defined as observations which are greater than all…
Revealing the ongoing changes in ocean dynamics and their impact on marine ecosystems requires the joint analysis of multiple variables. Yet, global observational records only cover a few decades, posing a challenge in the separation of…
What transpires from recent research is that temperatures and radiative forcing seem to be characterized by a linear trend with two changes in the rate of growth. The first occurs in the early 60s and indicates a very large increase in the…
Cloud-to-ground lightning strikes observed in a specific geographical domain over time can be naturally modeled by a spatio-temporal point process. Our focus lies in the parametric estimation of its intensity function, incorporating both…
The classical modeling of spatial extremes relies on asymptotic models (i.e., max-stable processes or $r$-Pareto processes) for block maxima or peaks over high thresholds, respectively. However, at finite levels, empirical evidence often…