Related papers: Spatio-temporal modeling for record-breaking tempe…
A nonanticipative analog method is used for the long-term forecast of air temperature extremes. The data to be used for prediction include average daily air temperature, mean visibility, mean wind speed, mean dew point, maximum and minimum…
Many biological processes, including plant leafout and flowering, occur once cumulative temperatures reach a threshold (the thermal-sum model). In this way, temperatures are thought to coordinate the timing of biological events. But growing…
The temperatures in large parts of Europe have been record high during the meteorological autumn of 2006. Compared to 1961-1990, the 2m temperature was more than three degrees Celsius above normal from the North side of the Alps to southern…
Observations indicate that the Arctic sea ice cover is rapidly retreating while the Antarctic sea ice cover is steadily expanding. State-of-the-art climate models, by contrast, typically simulate a moderate decrease in both the Arctic and…
In this work, an analysis of multifractal parameters of daily precipitation series over the Iberian Peninsula was performed in two 30-year periods to explore whether these properties follow any pattern. Fluctuations of precipitation series…
With the press of global climate change, extreme weather and sudden weather changes are becoming increasingly common. To maintain a comfortable indoor environment and minimize the contribution of the building to climate change as much as…
Background: Extreme heat is a major public health risk, yet its relationship with mortality may be confounded or modified by air pollution and social determinants. Objectives: We aimed to quantify the effects of extreme maximum temperatures…
In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to 1.48K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and the El Nino onset fall short by…
The climate system's nonlinear dynamics is influenced by various external forcings and internal feedbacks that can give rise to regional and even global tipping points that may lead to significant and potentially irreversible changes.…
When a quantity reaches a value higher (or lower) than its value at any time before, it is said to have made a record. We numerically study the statistical properties of records in the time series of order parameters in different models…
We introduce a new dynamic model with the capability of recognizing both activities that an individual is performing as well as where that ndividual is located. Our model is novel in that it utilizes a dynamic graphical model to jointly…
We review recent results on the appearance of long-term persistence in climatic records and their relevance for the evaluation of global climate models and rare events.The persistence can be characterized, for example, by the correlation…
Many environmental processes such as rainfall, wind or snowfall are inherently spatial and the modelling of extremes has to take into account that feature. In addition, environmental processes are often attached with an angle, e.g., wind…
Climate modelers generally require meteorological information on regular grids, but monitoring stations are, in practice, sited irregularly. Thus, there is a need to produce public data records that interpolate available data to a high…
We present a framework for inference for spatial processes that have actual values imperfectly represented by data. Environmental processes represented as spatial fields, either at fixed time points, or aggregated over fixed time periods,…
Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the…
Thermal history models, that have been used to understand the geological history of Earth, are now being coupled to climate models to map conditions that allow planets to maintain surface water over geologic time - a criteria considered…
Industrial operations have grown exponentially over the last century, driving advancements in energy utilization through vehicles and machinery.This growth has significant environmental implications, necessitating the use of sophisticated…
Climate projection uncertainty can be partitioned into model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty and internal variability. Here, we investigate the different sources of uncertainty in the projected frequencies of daily maximum temperature and…
Using observations for two UK coastal sites <3 km from the sea, one on the West coast near the nuclear new build (NNB) site Hinkley Point C (HPC) and the other on the East coast, near the proposed NNB site Bradwell B (BRB), changes in…