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Conformal prediction (CP) is widely presented as distribution-free predictive inference with finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability. We argue that CP is best understood as a rank-calibrated descendant of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-30 Jyotishka Datta , Nicholas G. Polson , Vadim Sokolov , Daniel Zantedeschi

Pulsar timing arrays recently found evidence for a gravitational wave background (GWB), likely the stochastic overlap of GWs from many supermassive black hole binaries. Anticipating a continuous gravitational wave (CW) detection from a…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-08-08 Emiko C. Gardiner , Bence Bécsy , Luke Zoltan Kelley , Neil J. Cornish

A yet undetected class of GW signals is represented by the close encounters between compact objects in highly-eccentric e~1 orbits, that can occur in binary systems formed in dense environments such as globular clusters. The expected…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-09-26 Federico De Santi , Massimiliano Razzano , Francesco Fidecaro , Luca Muccillo , Lucia Papalini , Barbara Patricelli

The collection of individually resolvable gravitational wave (GW) events makes up a tiny fraction of all GW signals which reach our detectors, while most lie below the confusion limit and go undetected. Like voices in a crowded room, the…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2022-03-02 Arianna I. Renzini , Boris Goncharov , Alexander C. Jenkins , Pat M. Meyers

We investigate the issue in determining the significance of candidate transient gravitational-wave events in a ground-based interferometer network. Given the presence of non-Gaussian noise artefacts in real data, the noise background must…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2017-10-18 Collin Capano , Thomas Dent , Chad Hanna , Martin Hendry , Yi-Ming Hu , Chris Messenger , John Veitch

Gravitational radiation offers a unique possibility to study the large-scale structure of the Universe, gravitational wave sources and propagation in a completely novel way. Given that gravitational wave maps contain a wealth of…

It is thought that a stochastic background of gravitational waves was produced during the formation of the universe. A great deal could be learned by measuring this Cosmic Gravitational-wave Background (CGB), but detecting the CGB presents…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2009-11-07 Neil J. Cornish , Shane L. Larson

The gravitational-wave detector is a complex and sensitive collection of advanced instruments that are impacted not only by mechanical/electronics systems but also by the surrounding environment. Hence, it is of great importance to classify…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-09-07 Piljong Jung , Sang Hoon Oh , Young-Min Kim , Edwin J. Son , Takaaki Yokozawa , Tatsuki Washimi , John J. Oh

The coalescence of compact binaries containing neutron stars or black holes is one of the most promising signals for advanced ground-based laser interferometer gravitational-wave detectors, with the first direct detections expected over the…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2015-09-02 Simon Stevenson , Frank Ohme , Stephen Fairhurst

Advancements in gravitational-wave interferometers, particularly the next generation, are poised to profoundly impact gravitational wave astronomy and multimessenger astrophysics. A hybrid quantum algorithm is proposed to carry out quantum…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-02-05 Gabriel Escrig , Roberto Campos , Hong Qi , M. A. Martin-Delgado

Gravitational-wave observations have revealed sources whose unusual properties challenge our understanding of compact-binary formation. Inferring the formation processes that are best able to reproduce such events may therefore yield key…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2023-09-08 Matthew Mould , Davide Gerosa , Marco Dall'Amico , Michela Mapelli

The LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA catalog has been analyzed with an abundance of different population models due to theoretical uncertainty in the formation of gravitational-wave sources. To expedite model exploration, we introduce an efficient and…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2025-06-30 Matthew Mould , Noah E. Wolfe , Salvatore Vitale

Deep learning models in robotics often output point estimates with poorly calibrated confidences, offering no native mechanism to quantify predictive reliability under novel, noisy, or out-of-distribution inputs. Conformal prediction (CP)…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-09-29 Divake Kumar , Sina Tayebati , Francesco Migliarba , Ranganath Krishnan , Amit Ranjan Trivedi

We review and expand on a Bayesian model selection technique for the detection of gravitational waves from neutron star ring-downs associated with pulsar glitches. The algorithm works with power spectral densities constructed from…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2008-11-26 J Clark , I S Heng , M Pitkin , G Woan

We present a general framework for incorporating astrophysical information into Bayesian parameter estimation techniques used by gravitational wave data analysis to facilitate multi-messenger astronomy. Since the progenitors of transient…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2014-10-14 XiLong Fan , Christopher Messenger , Ik Siong Heng

Gravitational wave (GW) observations probe both a diffuse, stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) as well as individual cataclysmic events such as the merger of two compact objects. The detection and description of the…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-03-28 Eleanor Gleave , Andrew Jaffe

Gravitational waves from the coalescence of compact-binary sources are now routinely observed by Earth bound detectors. The most sensitive search algorithms convolve many different pre-calculated gravitational waveforms with the detector…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-02-11 Marlin B. Schäfer , Alexander H. Nitz

Conformal prediction (CP) converts any model's output to prediction sets with a guarantee to cover the true label with (adjustable) high probability. Robust CP extends this guarantee to worst-case (adversarial) inputs. Existing baselines…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-10 Soroush H. Zargarbashi , Aleksandar Bojchevski

Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Chen Xu , Hanyang Jiang , Yao Xie

Gravitational wave sources act as absolute distance indicators, making them powerful probes of the present-day expansion rate of the Universe, $H_0$. The cross-correlation method combines gravitational wave events with galaxy catalogues to…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-11 Madeline L. Cross-Parkin , Cullan Howlett , Leonardo Giani , Chris Blake , Tamara M. Davis