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The problem of online change point detection is to detect abrupt changes in properties of time series, ideally as soon as possible after those changes occur. Existing work on online change point detection either assumes i.i.d data, focuses…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-01 Lei Xin , George Chiu , Shreyas Sundaram

We propose a novel Bayesian framework for changepoint detection in large-scale spherical spatiotemporal data, with broad applicability in environmental and climate sciences. Our approach models changepoints as spatially dependent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-16 Samantha Shi-Jun , Bo Li

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the \textit{sequential predictive conformal inference} (\texttt{SPCI}). We specifically account for the nature that time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-31 Chen Xu , Yao Xie

We are concerned with the problem of detecting a single change point in the model parameters of time series data generated from an exponential family. In contrast to the existing literature, we allow that the true location of the change…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-07 Cassandra Milbradt

In this paper, we aim to improve multivariate anomaly detection (AD) by modeling the \textit{time-varying non-linear spatio-temporal correlations} found in multivariate time series data . In multivariate time series data, an anomaly may be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-19 Padmaksha Roy , Almuatazbellah Boker , Lamine Mili

In this paper the problem of retrospective change-point detection and estimation in multivariate linear models is considered. The lower bounds for the error of change-point estimation are proved in different cases (one change-point:…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-10-27 Boris Brodsky , Boris Darkhovsky

The paper addresses a joint sequential changepoint detection and identification/isolation problem for a general stochastic model, assuming that the observed data may be dependent and non-identically distributed, the prior distribution of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-04 Alexander G. Tartakovsky

Change Point Detection (CPD) methods identify the times associated with changes in the trends and properties of time series data in order to describe the underlying behaviour of the system. For instance, detecting the changes and anomalies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-08 Shohreh Deldari , Daniel V. Smith , Hao Xue , Flora D. Salim

Automated analysis of complex systems based on multiple readouts remains a challenge. Change point detection algorithms are aimed to locating abrupt changes in the time series behaviour of a process. In this paper, we present a novel change…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-05 Artem Ryzhikov , Mikhail Hushchyn , Denis Derkach

We consider an integer-valued time series $Y=(Y_t)_{t\in\Z}$ where the models after a time $k^*$ is Poisson autoregressive with the conditional mean that depends on a parameter $\theta^*\in\Theta\subset\R^d$. The structure of the process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-05 William Kengne , Isidore Séraphin Ngongo

Strategic test allocation plays a major role in the control of both emerging and existing pandemics (e.g., COVID-19, HIV). Widespread testing supports effective epidemic control by (1) reducing transmission via identifying cases, and (2)…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-06 Ivana Malenica , Jeremy R. Coyle , Mark J. van der Laan , Maya L. Petersen

We study sequential change-point detection procedures based on linear sketches of high-dimensional signal vectors using generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) statistics. The GLR statistics allow for an unknown post-change mean that represents…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-01 Yang Cao , Andrew Thompson , Meng Wang , Yao Xie

The purpose of this study is to provide a new methodology of how one can consistently estimate a change-point in time series data. In contrast with previous studies, the suggested methodology employs only the empirical spectral density and…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-22 Gyorgy H. Terdik , Stergios B. Fotopoulos , Venkata K. Jandhyala

In recent years, there has been an increasing demand on efficient algorithms for large scale change point detection problems. To this end, we propose seeded binary segmentation, an approach relying on a deterministic construction of…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-13 Solt Kovács , Housen Li , Peter Bühlmann , Axel Munk

In this paper, we propose a fast, well-performing, and consistent method for segmenting a piecewise-stationary, linear time series with an unknown number of breakpoints. The time series model we use is the nonparametric Locally Stationary…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-30 Haeran Cho , Piotr Fryzlewicz

The first-order binomial autoregressive (BAR(1)) model is the most frequently used tool to analyze the bounded count time series. The BAR(1) model is stationary and assumes process parameters to remain constant throughout the time period,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-23 Danshu Sheng , Chang Liu , Yao Kang

We present a simple reduction from sequential estimation to sequential changepoint detection (SCD). In short, suppose we are interested in detecting changepoints in some parameter or functional $\theta$ of the underlying distribution. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-07 Shubhanshu Shekhar , Aaditya Ramdas

Process monitoring and control requires detection of structural changes in a data stream in real time. This article introduces an efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm designed for learning unknown changepoints in continuous time. The…

Applications · Statistics 2015-09-29 Melissa J. M. Turcotte , Nicholas A. Heard

We argue that the selective inclusion of data points based on latent objectives is common in practical situations, such as music sequences. Since this selection process often distorts statistical analysis, previous work primarily views it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Yujia Zheng , Zeyu Tang , Yiwen Qiu , Bernhard Schölkopf , Kun Zhang

An important assumption in the work on testing for structural breaks in time series consists in the fact that the model is formulated such that the stochastic process under the null hypothesis of "no change-point" is stationary. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-31 Holger Dette , Weichi Wu , Zhou Zhou