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We consider the problem of sequentially testing for changes in the mean parameter of a time series, compared to a benchmark period. Most tests in the literature focus on the null hypothesis of a constant mean versus the alternative of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-23 Patrick Bastian , Tim Kutta , Rupsa Basu , Holger Dette

The ordinal patterns of a fixed number of consecutive values in a time series is the spatial ordering of these values. Counting how often a specific ordinal pattern occurs in a time series provides important insights into the properties of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-06 Annika Betken , Giorgio Micali , Johannes Schmidt-Hieber

Detecting change-points in data is challenging because of the range of possible types of change and types of behaviour of data when there is no change. Statistically efficient methods for detecting a change will depend on both of these…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-29 Jie Li , Paul Fearnhead , Piotr Fryzlewicz , Tengyao Wang

This paper proposes a novel methodology for the online detection of changepoints in the factor structure of large matrix time series. Our approach is based on the well-known fact that, in the presence of a changepoint, a factor model can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-28 Yong He , Xin-bing Kong , Lorenzo Trapani , Long Yu

High dimensional piecewise stationary graphical models represent a versatile class for modelling time varying networks arising in diverse application areas, including biology, economics, and social sciences. There has been recent work in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-21 Hossein Keshavarz , George Michailidis , Yves Atchade

We study the problem of detecting change points (CPs) that are characterized by a subset of dimensions in a multi-dimensional sequence. A method for detecting those CPs can be formulated as a two-stage method: one for selecting relevant…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-05 Yuta Umezu , Ichiro Takeuchi

In this article, we introduce the mean independent component analysis for multivariate time series to reduce the parameter space. In particular, we seek for a contemporaneous linear transformation that detects univariate mean independent…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-18 Chung Eun Lee , Zeda Li

A novel method for sequential outlier detection in non-stationary time series is proposed. The method tests the null hypothesis of ``no outlier'' at each time point, addressing the multiple testing problem by bounding the error probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-26 Florian Heinrichs , Patrick Bastian , Holger Dette

Consider the problem on sequential change-point detection on multiple data streams. We provide the asymptotic lower bounds of the detection delays at all levels of change-point sparsity and we derive a smaller asymptotic lower bound of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-02 Jingyan Huang

In a sequence of multivariate observations or non-Euclidean data objects, such as networks, local dependence is common and could lead to false change-point discoveries. We propose a new way of permutation -- circular block permutation with…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-06 Hao Chen

A novel sequential change detection problem is proposed, in which the goal is to not only detect but also accelerate the change. Specifically, it is assumed that the sequentially collected observations are responses to treatments selected…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-24 Yanglei Song , Georgios Fellouris

Changepoint detection is commonly formulated by minimizing the sum of in-sample losses to quantify the model's overall fit. However, for flexible modeling procedures -- especially those involving high-dimensional parameter spaces or…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Chengde Qian , Guanghui Wang , Zhaojun Wang , Changliang Zou

In this article, we study sequential change-point methods for discretely observed generalized Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes with periodic drift. Two detection methods are proposed, and their respective performance is studied through…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-12-30 Yunhong Lyu , Bouchra R. Nasri , Bruno N. Rémillard

This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-04 Donald W. K. Andrews , Ming Li

Changepoint detection identifies times when the generative process of a time series changes, with applications in healthcare, cybersecurity, and finance. In multivariate settings, changes in cross-variable and temporal dependence are…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Victor K. Khamesi , Edward A. K. Cohen , Niall M. Adams , Dean A. Bodenham

We propose a new sequential monitoring scheme for changes in the parameters of a multivariate time series. In contrast to procedures proposed in the literature which compare an estimator from the training sample with an estimator calculated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-28 Josua Gösmann , Tobias Kley , Holger Dette

In this paper, we study change-point testing for high-dimensional linear models, an important problem that has not been well explored in the literature. Specifically, we propose a quadratic-form cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistic to test the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-23 Zifeng Zhao , Xiaokai Luo , Zongge Liu , Daren Wang

Researchers faced with a sequence of candidate model specifications must often choose the best specification that does not violate a testable identification assumption. One option in this scenario is sequential specification tests:…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-25 Adam C. Sales

The objective of the change-point detection is to discover the abrupt property changes lying behind the time-series data. In this paper, we firstly summarize the definition and in-depth implication of the changepoint detection. The next…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-08-21 Yixiao Li , Gloria Lin , Thomas Lau , Ruochen Zeng

We study detection methods for multivariable signals under dependent noise. The main focus is on three-dimensional signals, i.e. on signals in the space-time domain. Examples for such signals are multifaceted. They include geographic and…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-20 Annabel Prause , Ansgar Steland