Related papers: Mean-preserving rounding integer-valued ARMA model…
In this article we study multivariate continuous-time autoregressive moving-average (MCARMA) processes with values in convex cones. More specifically, we introduce matrix-valued MCARMA processes with L\'evy noise and present necessary and…
The thinning-based integer-valued autoregressive moving-average (INARMA) models are popular for count time series. Recently, types of INARMA models have also been developed for count random fields, i.e., for spatial count data located on a…
This paper considers both the least squares and quasi-maximum likelihood estimation for the recently proposed scalable ARMA model, a parametric infinite-order vector AR model, and their asymptotic normality is also established. It makes…
Stochastic Rounding is a probabilistic rounding mode that is surprisingly effective in large-scale computations and low-precision arithmetic. Its random nature promotes error cancellation rather than error accumulation, resulting in slower…
Establishing appropriate mathematical models for complex systems in natural phenomena not only helps deepen our understanding of nature but can also be used for state estimation and prediction. However, the extreme complexity of natural…
This is a survey of some recent results on the rational circulant covariance extension problem: Given a partial sequence $(c_0,c_1,\dots,c_n)$ of covariance lags $c_k=\mathbb{E}\{y(t+k)\overline{y(t)}\}$ emanating from a stationary periodic…
Autoregressive models (ARMs) have become the workhorse for sequence generation tasks, since many problems can be modeled as next-token prediction. While there appears to be a natural ordering for text (i.e., left-to-right), for many data…
Stochastic rounding (SR) is a probabilistic rounding mode that mitigates errors in large-scale numerical computations, especially when prone to stagnation effects. Beyond numerical analysis, SR has shown significant benefits in practical…
In this paper the problems of the retrospective analysis of models with time-varying structure are considered. These models include contamination models with randomly switching parameters and multivariate classification models with an…
In many machine learning problems the output should not depend on the order of the input. Such "permutation invariant" functions have been studied extensively recently. Here we argue that temporal architectures such as RNNs are highly…
Despite the advantageous subquadratic complexity of modern recurrent deep learning models -- such as state-space models (SSMs) -- recent studies have highlighted their potential shortcomings compared to transformers on reasoning and…
We propose convenient inferential methods for potentially nonstationary multivariate unobserved components models with fractional integration and cointegration. Based on finite-order ARMA approximations in the state space representation,…
We introduce a recursive algorithm of conveniently general form for estimating the coefficient of a moving average model of order one and obtain convergence results for both correct and misspecified MA(1) models. The algorithm encompasses…
In this paper we address the problem of predicting a time series using the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model, under minimal assumptions on the noise terms. Using regret minimization techniques, we develop effective online learning…
In this paper, we propose a novel variable selection approach in the framework of sparse high-dimensional GLARMA models. It consists in combining the estimation of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) coefficients of these models with…
Multiplicative error models (MEMs) are commonly used for real-valued time series, but they cannot be applied to discrete-valued count time series as the involved multiplication would not preserve the integer nature of the data. Thus, the…
The conventional rounding error analysis provides worst-case bounds with an associated failure probability and ignores the statistical property of the rounding errors. In this paper, we develop a new statistical rounding error analysis for…
We develop a new efficient algorithm for the analysis of large-scale time series data. We firstly define rolling averages, derive their analytical properties, and establish their asymptotic distribution. These theoretical results are…
This review deals with Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) under the light of statistical physics. The RBM is a classical family of Machine learning (ML) models which played a central role in the development of deep learning. Viewing it as a…
This paper proposes a simple yet effective convolutional module for long-term time series forecasting. The proposed block, inspired by the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, consists of two convolutional components:…