Related papers: Two universal pathways in demographic transition
The urban transition, the increased ratio of urban to rural population globally and within countries, is a hallmark of the 21st century. Our analysis of publicly available data from the World Bank spanning several decades for ~195 countries…
Recent studies of human migration have focused on modern issues of international economics, politics, urbanization, or commuting. Here we make use of very large anonymized genealogies which offer quantitative metrics and models before…
Forest-fire and avalanche models support the notion that frequent catastrophes prevent the growth of very large populations and as such prevent rare large-scale catastrophes. We show that this notion is not universal. A new model class…
Demographic data and recent experiments verify earlier predictions that mortality has short (few percent of the life span) memory of the previous life history, may be significantly decreased, reset to its value at a much younger age, and…
Since steep declines in a population's size also typically alter its composition, population bottlenecks are considered highly important for evolution. However, despite such significance, the mechanisms governing the impact of a given…
Density dependence is important in the ecology and evolution of microbial and cancer cells. Typically, we can only measure net growth rates, but the underlying density-dependent mechanisms that give rise to the observed dynamics can…
We propose a stochastic model for evolution. Births and deaths of species occur with constant probabilities. Each new species is associated with a fitness sampled from the uniform distribution on [0,1]. Every time there is a death event…
A birth-death process is a continuous-time Markov chain that counts the number of particles in a system over time. In the general process with $n$ current particles, a new particle is born with instantaneous rate $\lambda_n$ and a particle…
The reproduction speed of a continuous-time branching random walk is proportional to a positive parameter $\lambda$. There is a threshold for $\lambda$, which is called $\lambda_w$, that separates almost sure global extinction from global…
Traditionally, population models distinguish individuals on the basis of their current state. Given a distribution, a discrete time model then specifies (precisely in deterministic models, probabilistically in stochastic models) the…
Growth in the global human population this century will have momentous consequences for societies and the environment. Population growth has come with higher aggregate human welfare, but also climate change and biodiversity loss. Based on…
The analysis of the demographic transition of the past century and a half, using both empirical data and mathematical models, has rendered a wealth of well-established facts, including the dramatic increases in life expectancy. Despite…
We develop the qualitative theory of the solutions of the McKendrick partial differential equation of population dynamics. We calculate explicitly the weak solutions of the McKendrick equation and of the Lotka renewal integral equation with…
The United Nations released official probabilistic population projections (PPP) for all countries for the first time in July 2014. These were obtained by projecting the period total fertility rate (TFR) and life expectancy at birth ($e_0$)…
Despite its historical and biological stability, the sex ratio at birth (SRB) has risen in parts of the world in the last several decades. The resultant demographic consequences, mostly on sex imbalance, are well documented, typically…
Motivated by a model of an area-wide integrated pest management, we develop an interacting particle system evolving in a random environment. It is a generalised contact process in which the birth rate takes two possible values, determined…
Several demographic and health indicators, including the total fertility rate (TFR) and modern contraceptive use rate (mCPR), evolve similarly over time, characterized by a transition between stable states. Existing approaches for…
The variant of phenomenological theory of humankind future existence after time of demographic transition based on treating the time of demographic transition as a point of phase transition and taking into account an appearing of the new…
Globalization processes interweave economic structures at a worldwide scale, trade playing a central role as one of the elemental channels of interaction among countries. Despite the significance of such phenomena, measuring economic…
Is it possible to reverse the low total fertility rate (TFR) in the developed world? Using a hypothetical model of population we have analysed the decline of the TFR which have took place in the background of ongoing global economic…