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Ensemble forecasting is, so far, the most successful approach to produce relevant forecasts with an estimation of their uncertainty. The main limitations of ensemble forecasting are the high computational cost and the difficulty to capture…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-21 Maximiliano A. Sacco , Juan J. Ruiz , Manuel Pulido , Pierre Tandeo

Machine learning (ML) offers promising new approaches to tackle complex problems and has been increasingly adopted in chemical and materials sciences. Broadly speaking, ML models employ generic mathematical functions and attempt to learn…

Materials Science · Physics 2024-08-21 Jin Dai , Santosh Adhikari , Mingjian Wen

Thermodynamic uncertainty relations (TURs) relate precision to the dissipation rate, yet the inequalities can be far from saturation. Indeed, in catenane molecular motor simulations, we record precision far below the TUR limit. We further…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2026-01-14 Alex Albaugh , Rueih-Sheng Fu , Geyao Gu , Todd R. Gingrich

We derive an analytic connection between the screened self-consistent effective potential from density functional theory (DFT) and atomic effective pseudopotentials (AEPs). The motivation to derive AEPs is to address structures with…

Mesoscale and Nanoscale Physics · Physics 2015-06-05 J. R. Cárdenas , G. Bester

Applications of large language models often involve the generation of free-form responses, in which case uncertainty quantification becomes challenging. This is due to the need to identify task-specific uncertainties (e.g., about the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-21 Ziyu Wang , Chris Holmes

Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) based on a large dataset obtained by density functional theory (DFT) calculation have been developed recently. This study gives both conceptual and practical bases for the high accuracy of…

Materials Science · Physics 2017-11-08 Akira Takahashi , Atsuto Seko , Isao Tanaka

The assessment of the reliability of Monte Carlo simulations is discussed, with emphasis on uncertainty quantification and the related impact on experimental results. Methods and techniques to account for epistemic uncertainties, i.e. for…

Computational Physics · Physics 2017-08-23 M. G. Pia , M. Batic , G. Hoff , P. Saracco , M. Begalli , M. Han , C. H Kim , H. Seo , S. Hauf , M. Kuster , L. Quintieri , G. Weidenspointner , A. Zoglauer

Uncertainty representation and quantification are paramount in machine learning and constitute an important prerequisite for safety-critical applications. In this paper, we propose novel measures for the quantification of aleatoric and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-22 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

Quantum speed limits are usually regarded as fundamental restrictions, constraining the amount of computation that can be achieved within some given time and energy. Complementary to this intuition, here we show that these limitations are…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-12 Caroline L. Jones , Albert Aloy , Gerard Higgins , Markus P. Mueller

Computationally-guided material discovery is being increasingly employed using a descriptor-based screening through the calculation of a few properties of interest. A precise understanding of the uncertainty associated with first principles…

Materials Science · Physics 2016-08-22 Zeeshan Ahmad , Venkatasubramanian Viswanathan

Many studies in uncertainty quantification have been carried out under the assumption of an input random field in which a countable number of independent random variables are each uniformly distributed on an interval, with these random…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-03-17 Vesa Kaarnioja , Frances Y. Kuo , Ian H. Sloan

Simulating the stochastic evolution of real quantities on a digital computer requires a trade-off between the precision to which these quantities are approximated, and the memory required to store them. The statistical accuracy of the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2017-10-16 Andrew J. P. Garner , Qing Liu , Jayne Thompson , Vlatko Vedral , Mile Gu

Density Functional Theory calculations traditionally suffer from an inherent cubic scaling with respect to the size of the system, making big calculations extremely expensive. This cubic scaling can be avoided by the use of so-called linear…

Techniques from artificial intelligence and machine learning are increasingly employed in nuclear theory, however, the uncertainties that arise from the complex parameter manifold encoded by the neural networks are often overlooked.…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2025-10-29 Mengyao Huang , Kyle A. Wendt , Nicolas F. Schunck , Erika M. Holmbeck

Machine-learning (ML) interatomic potentials (IPs) trained on first-principles datasets are becoming increasingly popular since they promise to treat larger system sizes and longer time scales, compared to the {\em ab initio} techniques…

Materials Science · Physics 2023-09-04 Shuaihua Lu , Luca M. Ghiringhelli , Christian Carbogno , Jinlan Wang , Matthias Scheffler

Atomic-scale phase-field modeling formulates the probability densities of atomic vibrations as Gaussian distributions and derives a free energy functional using variational Gaussian theory and interatomic potentials. This framework permits…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-09-17 Kairi Masuda , Yu Kumagai

Molecular dynamics simulations provide a versatile framework to study interfacial heat transport, but their accuracy remains limited by the accuracy of available interatomic potentials. In the past, researchers have adopted the use of…

Materials Science · Physics 2021-05-11 Spencer Wyant , Andrew Rohskopf , Asegun Henry

Training of general-purpose machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) relies on large datasets with properties usually computed with density functional theory (DFT). A pre-requisite for accurate MLIPs is that the DFT data are well…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2025-10-23 Domantas Kuryla , Fabian Berger , Gábor Csányi , Angelos Michaelides

Information about the physical properties of astrophysical objects cannot be measured directly but is inferred by interpreting spectroscopic observations in the context of atomic physics calculations. Ratios of emission lines, for example,…

Bulk thermal conductivity estimates based on predictions from non-equilibrium molecular dynamics (NEMD) using the so-called direct method are known to be severely under-predicted since finite simulation length-scales are unable to mimic…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-07-13 Manav Vohra , Ali Yousefzadi Nobakht , Seungha Shin , Sankaran Mahadevan
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