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We introduce an algorithm for identifying interpretable subgroups with elevated treatment effects, given an estimate of individual or conditional average treatment effects (CATE). Subgroups are characterized by ``rule sets'' --…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-15 Albert Chiu

Previous work on causal inference has primarily focused on averages and conditional averages of treatment effects, with significantly less attention on variability and uncertainty in individual treatment responses. In this paper, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-10 Liyuan Xu , Bijan Mazaheri

Consider the problem of estimating average treatment effects when a large number of covariates are used to adjust for possible confounding through outcome regression and propensity score models. The conventional approach of model building…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-31 Zhiqiang Tan

Quantifying treatment effect heterogeneity is a crucial task in many areas of causal inference, e.g. optimal treatment allocation and estimation of subgroup effects. We study the problem of estimating the level sets of the conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-03 Matteo Bonvini , Edward H. Kennedy , Luke J. Keele

We introduce the Strategic Doubly Robust (SDR) estimator, a novel framework that integrates strategic equilibrium modeling with doubly robust estimation for causal inference in strategic environments. SDR addresses endogenous treatment…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-03 Sibo Xiao

The conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is frequently estimated to refute the homogeneous treatment effect assumption. Under this assumption, all units making up the population under study experience identical benefit from a given…

We study average treatment effect (ATE) estimation under complete randomization with many covariates in a design-based, finite-population framework. In randomized experiments, regression adjustment can improve precision of estimators using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-12 Dogyoon Song

Deep neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial noise. Adversarial Training (AT) has been demonstrated to be the most effective defense strategy to protect neural networks from being fooled. However, we find AT omits to learning robust…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-11-21 Nuoyan Zhou , Nannan Wang , Decheng Liu , Dawei Zhou , Xinbo Gao

The difference-in-differences (DiD) design is a quasi-experimental method for estimating treatment effects. In staggered DiD with multiple treatment groups and periods, estimation based on the two-way fixed effects model yields negative…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-05 Yuhao Deng , Le Kang

Machine learning methods, particularly the double machine learning (DML) estimator (Chernozhukov et al., 2018), are increasingly popular for the estimation of the average treatment effect (ATE). However, datasets often exhibit unbalanced…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-06-12 Daniele Ballinari

Many recent developments in causal inference, and functional estimation problems more generally, have been motivated by the fact that classical one-step (first-order) debiasing methods, or their more recent sample-split double…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-10 Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Edward H. Kennedy , Larry Wasserman

Heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation is critical in medical research. It provides insights into how treatment effects vary among individuals, which can provide statistical evidence for precision medicine. While most existing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-25 Ke Wan , Kensuke Tanioka , Toshio Shimokawa

Since the average treatment effect (ATE) measures the change in social welfare, even if positive, there is a risk of negative effect on, say, some 10% of the population. Assessing such risk is difficult, however, because any one individual…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-20 Nathan Kallus

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is central to data-driven decision-making, yet industrial applications often face a fundamental tension between limited randomized controlled trial (RCT) budgets and abundant but biased…

We give an approach for characterizing interference by lower bounding the number of units whose outcome depends on selected groups of treated individuals, such as depending on the treatment of others, or others who are at least a certain…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-04 David Choi

This article proposes a meta-learning method for estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from a few observational data. The proposed method learns how to estimate CATEs from multiple tasks and uses the knowledge for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-22 Tomoharu Iwata , Yoichi Chikahara

Learning causal effects from observational data greatly benefits a variety of domains such as health care, education and sociology. For instance, one could estimate the impact of a new drug on specific individuals to assist the clinic plan…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-19 Xin Du , Lei Sun , Wouter Duivesteijn , Alexander Nikolaev , Mykola Pechenizkiy

Observational studies are frequently used to estimate the effect of an exposure or treatment on an outcome. To obtain an unbiased estimate of the treatment effect, it is crucial to measure the exposure accurately. A common type of exposure…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-02 Suhwan Bong , Kwonsang Lee , Francesca Dominici

There is currently a dearth of appropriate methods to estimate the causal effects of multiple treatments when the outcome is binary. For such settings, we propose the use of nonparametric Bayesian modeling, Bayesian Additive Regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-02 Chenyang Gu , Michael J. Lopez , Liangyuan Hu

Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is often carried out in 2 steps, wherein the first step, the treatment and outcome are modeled, and in the second step the predictions are inserted into the ATE estimator. In the first steps,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-21 Mehdi Rostami , Olli Saarela