Related papers: Analyizing the Conjunction Fallacy as a Fact

With recent advances in natural language processing, rationalization becomes an essential self-explaining diagram to disentangle the black box by selecting a subset of input texts to account for the major variation in prediction. Yet,…

Unobserved confounding is a central barrier to drawing causal inferences from observational data. Several authors have recently proposed that this barrier can be overcome in the case where one attempts to infer the effects of several…

We study the problem of testing composite hypotheses versus composite alternatives, using a convex duality approach. In contrast to classical results obtained by Krafft and Witting (Z. Wahrsch. Verw. Gebiete 7 (1967) 289--302), where…

Motivated reasoning posits that people distort how they process information in the direction of beliefs they find attractive. This paper creates a novel experimental design to identify motivated reasoning from Bayesian updating when people…

Understanding the laws that govern a phenomenon is the core of scientific progress. This is especially true when the goal is to model the interplay between different aspects in a causal fashion. Indeed, causal inference itself is…

There are many ways we can not know. Even in systems that we created ourselves, as, for example, systems in mathematical logic, Go\"edel and Tarski's theorems impose limits on what we can know. As we try to speak of the real world, things…

While explainability is a desirable characteristic of increasingly complex black-box models, modern explanation methods have been shown to be inconsistent and contradictory. The semantics of explanations is not always fully understood - to…

Random-effects meta-analyses of observational studies can produce biased estimates if the synthesized studies are subject to unmeasured confounding. We propose sensitivity analyses quantifying the extent to which unmeasured confounding of…

The categorial approach to evidential reasoning can be seen as a combination of the probability kinematics approach of Richard Jeffrey (1965) and the maximum (cross-) entropy inference approach of E. T. Jaynes (1957). As a consequence of…

The study of the weak-ties phenomenon has a long and well documented history, research into the application of this social phenomenon has recently attracted increasing attention. However, further exploration of the reasons behind the…

Language technologies that accurately model the dynamics of events must perform commonsense reasoning. Existing work evaluating commonsense reasoning focuses on making inferences about common, everyday situations. To instead investigate the…

The increasing deployment of machine learning as well as legal regulations such as EU's GDPR cause a need for user-friendly explanations of decisions proposed by machine learning models. Counterfactual explanations are considered as one of…

The famous (3n + 1) or Collatz conjecture has admitted some progress over the last several decades towards the conclusion that the conjecture is true (i.e. that all Collatz sequences will eventually reach a value of one), but has stubbornly…

With the rapid development of large language models (LLMs), LLM-as-a-judge has emerged as a widely adopted approach for text quality evaluation, including hallucination evaluation. While previous studies have focused exclusively on…

In many data analysis applications, there is a need to explain why a surprising or interesting result was produced by a query. Previous approaches to explaining results have directly or indirectly used data provenance (input tuples…

Due to the significant role that curiosity plays in our lives, several theoretical constructs, such as the information gap theory and compression progress theory, have sought to explain how we engage in its practice. According to the…

In fuzzy propositional logic, to a proposition a partial truth in [0,1] is assigned. It is well known that under certain circumstances, fuzzy logic collapses to classical logic. In this paper, we will show that under dual conditions, fuzzy…

This paper extends the literature on the strict-tolerant logical approach by applying its methods to intuitionistic and minimal logic. In short, the strict-tolerant approach modifies the usual notion of logical consequence by stipulating…

For a long time, Collatz Conjecture has been assumed to be true, although a formal proof has eluded all efforts to date. In this article, evidence is presented that suggests such an assumption is incorrect. By analysing the stopping times…

Causal Learning has emerged as a major theme of research in statistics and machine learning in recent years, promising specific computational techniques to apply to datasets that reveal the true nature of cause and effect in a number of…