Related papers: Analyizing the Conjunction Fallacy as a Fact
There has been a considerable amount of work on uncertainty in knowledge-based systems. This work has generally been concerned with uncertainty arising from the strength of inferences and the weight of evidence. In this paper we discuss…
We present the fundamentals of the quantum theoretical approach we have developed in the last decade to model cognitive phenomena that resisted modeling by means of classical logical and probabilistic structures, like Boolean, Kolmogorovian…
Intercausal reasoning is a common inference pattern involving probabilistic dependence of causes of an observed common effect. The sign of this dependence is captured by a qualitative property called product synergy. The current definition…
Statistical convergence was introduced in connection with problems of series summation. The main idea of the statistical convergence of a sequence l is that the majority of elements from l converge and we do not care what is going on with…
Classical logic has a serious limitation in that it cannot cope with the issues of vagueness and uncertainty into which fall most modes of human reasoning. In order to provide a foundation for human knowledge representation and reasoning in…
Long-term causal inference is an important but challenging problem across various scientific domains. To solve the latent confounding problem in long-term observational studies, existing methods leverage short-term experimental data.…
In two recent papers, I have proposed a description of decision analysis that differs from the Bayesian picture painted by Savage, Jeffrey and other classic authors. Response to this view has been either overly enthusiastic or unduly…
Emergence is a profound subject that straddles many scientific disciplines, including the formation of galaxies and how consciousness arises from the collective activity of neurons. Despite the broad interest that exists on this concept,…
Fuzziness and randomicity widespread exist in natural science, engineering, technology and social science. The purpose of this paper is to present a new logic - uncertain propositional logic which can deal with both fuzziness by taking…
Humans currently use arguments for explaining choices which are already made, or for evaluating potential choices. Each potential choice has usually pros and cons of various strengths. In spite of the usefulness of arguments in a decision…
The research process includes many decisions, e.g., how to entitle and where to publish the paper. In this paper, we introduce a general framework for investigating the effects of such decisions. The main difficulty in investigating the…
In the present article we consider the inverse fallacy, a well known cognitive heuristic experimentally tested in cognitive science, which occurs for intuitive judgments in situations of bounded rationality. We show that the quantum…
Transparency is an essential requirement of machine learning based decision making systems that are deployed in real world. Often, transparency of a given system is achieved by providing explanations of the behavior and predictions of the…
Despite significant progress has been achieved in text summarization, factual inconsistency in generated summaries still severely limits its practical applications. Among the key factors to ensure factual consistency, a reliable automatic…
Uncertainty may be taken to characterize inferences, their conclusions, their premises or all three. Under some treatments of uncertainty, the inferences itself is never characterized by uncertainty. We explore both the significance of…
In this paper, we present a formal analysis of temporally sensitive counterfactual conditionals. We observe a set of key metaphysical and conceptual problems in regards to counterfactual statements and time. Bearing that in mind, we present…
We make a probabilistic analysis related to some inference rules which play an important role in nonmonotonic reasoning. In a coherence-based setting, we study the extensions of a probability assessment defined on $n$ conditional events to…
With the increasing capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), parallel reasoning has emerged as a new inference paradigm that enhances reasoning robustness by concurrently exploring multiple lines of thought before converging on a final…
Explanations on relational data are hard to verify since the explanation structures are more complex (e.g. graphs). To verify interpretable explanations (e.g. explanations of predictions made in images, text, etc.), typically human subjects…
The deterrent effect of military alliances is well documented and widely accepted. However, such work has typically assumed that alliances are exogenous. This is problematic as alliances may simultaneously influence the probability of…