Related papers: On scalable ARMA models
A new likelihood based AR approximation is given for ARMA models. The usual algorithms for the computation of the likelihood of an ARMA model require $O(n)$ flops per function evaluation. Using our new approximation, an algorithm is…
Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models are widely used for analyzing time series data. However, standard likelihood-based inference methodology for ARMA models has avoidable limitations. We show that currently accepted standards for…
We propose convenient inferential methods for potentially nonstationary multivariate unobserved components models with fractional integration and cointegration. Based on finite-order ARMA approximations in the state space representation,…
We study the quadratic prediction error method -- i.e., nonlinear least squares -- for a class of time-varying parametric predictor models satisfying a certain identifiability condition. While this method is known to asymptotically achieve…
Variational methods for parameter estimation are an active research area, potentially offering computationally tractable heuristics with theoretical performance bounds. We build on recent work that applies such methods to network data, and…
In this paper, the parameter estimation of ARMA(p,q) model is given by approximate Bayesian computation algorithm. In order to improve the sampling efficiency of the algorithm, approximate Bayesian computation should select as many…
We propose the approximate Laplace approximation (ALA) to evaluate integrated likelihoods, a bottleneck in Bayesian model selection. The Laplace approximation (LA) is a popular tool that speeds up such computation and equips strong model…
In this paper we propose a new optimization model for maximum likelihood estimation of causal and invertible ARMA models. Through a set of numerical experiments we show how our proposed model outperforms, both in terms of quality of the…
It is an important task in the literature to check whether a fitted autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model is adequate, while the currently used tests may suffer from the size distortion problem when the underlying autoregressive models…
This paper introduces a new class of robust estimates for ARMA models. They are M-estimates, but the residuals are computed so the effect of one outlier is limited to the period where it occurs. These estimates are closely related to those…
In contrast to the popular Cox model which presents a multiplicative covariate effect specification on the time to event hazards, the semiparametric additive risks model (ARM) offers an attractive additive specification, allowing for direct…
In this paper the stochastic complexity criterion is applied to estimation of the order in AR and ARMA models. The power of the criterion for short strings is illustrated by simulations. It requires an integral of the square root of Fisher…
In this paper, we propose a novel variable selection approach in the framework of sparse high-dimensional GLARMA models. It consists in combining the estimation of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) coefficients of these models with…
Auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) models are ubiquitous forecasting tools. Parsimony in such models is highly valued for their interpretability and computational tractability, and as such the identification of model orders remains a…
We study generalized additive partial linear models, proposing the use of polynomial spline smoothing for estimation of nonparametric functions, and deriving quasi-likelihood based estimators for the linear parameters. We establish…
Empirical economic research frequently applies maximum likelihood estimation in cases where the likelihood function is analytically intractable. Most of the theoretical literature focuses on maximum simulated likelihood (MSL) estimators,…
The estimation of normalizing constants is a fundamental step in probabilistic model comparison. Sequential Monte Carlo methods may be used for this task and have the advantage of being inherently parallelizable. However, the standard…
We provide a general theory of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for inferring high dimensional latent variable models. In particular, we make two contributions: (i) For parameter estimation, we propose a novel high dimensional EM…
Existing models for high-dimensional time series are overwhelmingly developed within the finite-order vector autoregressive (VAR) framework. However, the more flexible vector autoregressive moving averages (VARMA) have been much less…
Autoregressive and moving-average (ARMA) models with stable Paretian errors is one of the most studied models for time series with infinite variance. Estimation methods for these models have been studied by many researchers but the problem…