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Bitcoin constructs temporal order internally rather than synchronizing to any external clock. Empirical evidence shows that its time evolution is non-continuous, probabilistic, and self-regulated. Block discovery follows a stochastic…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Bin Chen

Using the asymmetric stochastic volatility model, this study investigates the day-of-the-week and holiday effects on the returns and volatility of Bitcoin from January 1, 2013 to August 31, 2019; in this context, we also discuss the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-10-17 Noriyuki Kunimoto , Kazuhiko Kakamu

In recent years, cryptocurrencies have attracted growing attention from both private investors and institutions. Among them, Bitcoin stands out for its impressive volatility and widespread influence. This paper explores the predictability…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-29 Grégory Bournassenko

Based on the cryptocurrency market dynamics, this study presents a general methodology for analyzing evolving correlation structures in complex systems using the $q$-dependent detrended cross-correlation coefficient \rho(q,s). By extending…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-10-29 Marcin Wątorek , Marija Bezbradica , Martin Crane , Jarosław Kwapień , Stanisław Drożdż

A main focus in economics research is understanding the time series of prices of goods and assets. While statistical models using only the properties of the time series itself have been successful in many aspects, we expect to gain a better…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-12-15 Dániel Kondor , István Csabai , János Szüle , Márton Pósfai , Gábor Vattay

In the work, a comparative correlation and fractal analysis of time series of Bitcoin crypto currency rate and community activities in social networks associated with Bitcoin was conducted. A significant correlation between the Bitcoin rate…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-05-06 Lyudmyla Kirichenko , Vitalii Bulakh , Tamara Radivilova

While attention is a predictor for digital asset prices, and jumps in Bitcoin prices are well-known, we know little about its alternatives. Studying high frequency crypto data gives us the unique possibility to confirm that cross market…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2021-10-19 Danial Saef , Odett Nagy , Sergej Sizov , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

In the present work we investigate the multiscale nature of the correlations for high frequency data (1 minute) in different futures markets over a period of two years, starting on the 1st of January 2003 and ending on the 31st of December…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-11-13 M. Bartolozzi , C. Mellen , T. Di Matteo , T. Aste

Asymmetric relationship between price and volatility is a prominent feature of the financial market time series. This paper explores the price-volatility nexus in cryptocurrency markets and investigates the presence of asymmetric volatility…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-09 Shinji Kakinaka , Ken Umeno

This paper shows that Bitcoin is not correlated to a general uncertainty index as measured by the Google Trends data of Castelnuovo and Tran (2017). Instead, Bitcoin is linked to a Google Trends attention measure specific for the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-06-15 Nektarios Aslanidis , Aurelio F. Bariviera , Óscar G. López

Trade prices of about 1000 New York Stock Exchange-listed stocks are studied at one-minute time resolution over the continuous five year period 2018--2022. For each stock, in dollar-volume-weighted transaction time, the discrepancy from a…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2023-05-16 William H. Press

Time series of price returns for 80 of the most liquid cryptocurrencies listed on Binance are investigated for the presence of detrended cross-correlations. A spectral analysis of the detrended correlation matrix and a topological analysis…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-14 Jarosław Kwapień , Marcin Wątorek , Stanisław Drożdż

The S&P 500 index is considered the most popular trading instrument in financial markets. With the rise of cryptocurrencies over the past years, Bitcoin has also grown in popularity and adoption. The paper aims to analyze the daily return…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-11 A. H. Nzokem

We employed Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) and Refined Composite Multiscale Sample Entropy (RCMSE) to investigate the complexity of Bitcoin, GBP/USD, gold, and natural gas price log-return time series. This study…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-08-01 Oday Masoudi , Farhad Shahbazi , Mohammad Sharifi

This paper builds a model of high-frequency equity returns by separately modeling the dynamics of trade-time returns and trade arrivals. Our main contributions are threefold. First, we characterize the distributional behavior of…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2014-09-02 Eric M. Aldrich , Indra Heckenbach , Gregory Laughlin

In this paper, we study the possibility of inferring early warning indicators (EWIs) for periods of extreme bitcoin price volatility using features obtained from Bitcoin daily transaction graphs. We infer the low-dimensional representations…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-02-08 Nino Antulov-Fantulin , Dijana Tolic , Matija Piskorec , Zhang Ce , Irena Vodenska

We propose a doubly subordinated Levy process, NDIG, to model the time series properties of the cryptocurrency bitcoin. NDIG captures the skew and fat-tailed properties of bitcoin prices and gives rise to an arbitrage free, option pricing…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-08-31 Abootaleb Shirvani , Stefan Mittnik , W. Brent Lindquist , Svetlozar T. Rachev

Bitcoin has attracted attention from different market participants due to unpredictable price patterns. Sometimes, the price has exhibited big jumps. Bitcoin prices have also had extreme, unexpected crashes. We test the predictive power of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-12-15 Andrés García-Medina , Toan Luu Duc Huynh3

This research analyses high-frequency data of the cryptocurrency market in regards to intraday trading patterns related to algorithmic trading and its impact on the European cryptocurrency market. We study trading quantitatives such as…

Trading and Market Microstructure · Quantitative Finance 2020-09-10 Alla A. Petukhina , Raphael C. G. Reule , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

The cryptocurrency market presents both significant investment opportunities and higher risks relative to traditional financial assets. This study examines the tail behavior of daily returns for two leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-04 A. H. Nzokem