Related papers: Early Warning Signals for Bifurcations Embedded in…
Tipping points are abrupt, drastic, and often irreversible changes in the evolution of non-stationary and chaotic dynamical systems. For instance, increased greenhouse gas concentrations are predicted to lead to drastic decreases in low…
Conceptual delay models have played a key role in the understanding of El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Based on such delay models, we propose a novel scenario for the fabric of ENSO variability resulting from the subtle…
An important challenge in several disciplines is to understand how sudden changes can propagate among coupled systems. Examples include the synchronization of business cycles, population collapse in patchy ecosystems, markets shifting to a…
With rising global temperatures Earth's tipping elements are becoming increasingly more vulnerable to crossing their critical thresholds. The reaching of such tipping points does not only impact other tipping elements through their…
In this paper, we study the applicability of an early warning index while studying the transitions to complete and generalized synchronizations in the coupled oscillator models using an unconventional system parameter and the coupling…
We propose a new procedure to monitor and forecast the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems. We describe our procedure by an application to the Tangled Nature model of evolutionary ecology. The quasi-stable…
Identifying early warning signs of sudden population changes and mechanisms leading to regime shifts are highly desirable in population biology. In this paper, a two-trophic ecosystem comprising of two species of predators, competing for…
Bifurcations in a system of coupled maps are investigated. Using symbolic dynamics it is proven that for coupled shift maps the well known space--time--mixing attractor becomes unstable at a critical coupling strength in favour of a…
Early detection of leaks in gas transmission systems is crucial for ensuring uninterrupted gas supply, enhancing operational efficiency, and minimizing environmental and economic risks. This study aims to develop an analytical method for…
In order to investigate the emergence of periodic oscillations of rimming flows, we study analytically the stability of steady states for the model of (Benilov, Kopteva, O'Brien, 2005), which describes the dynamics of a thin fluid film…
Nonsmooth formulations of physical models are common, particularly in climate modeling. However, in many of these models, there is little justification for this modeling choice, and no mathematical indication that the resulting behavior in…
When parameters of a dynamical system change sufficiently fast, critical transitions can take place even in the absence of bifurcations. This phenomenon is known as rate-induced tipping and has been reported in a variety of systems, from…
Nowadays, the deployment of deep learning models on edge devices for addressing real-world classification problems is becoming more prevalent. Moreover, there is a growing popularity in the approach of early classification, a technique that…
Many natural systems undergo critical transitions, i.e. sudden shifts from one dynamical regime to another. In the climate system, the atmospheric boundary layer can experience sudden transitions between fully turbulent states and…
Dansgaard-Oeschger events are a prominent mode of variability in the records of the last glacial cycle. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations, and no agreement has emerged on which may be…
We introduce a new methodology for forecasting which we call Signal Diffusion Mapping. Our approach accommodates features of real world financial data which have been ignored historically in existing forecasting methodologies. Our method…
This paper describes a novel approach to change-point detection when the observed high-dimensional data may have missing elements. The performance of classical methods for change-point detection typically scales poorly with the…
The identification and classification of transitions in topological and microstructural regimes in pattern-forming processes are critical for understanding and fabricating microstructurally precise novel materials in many application…
The high-frequency band of the $\delta^{18}\mbox{O}$ variations in the North Greenland Ice Core Project displays fluctuation levels that increase as one approaches the onset of an interstadial (warm) period. For some of the events it is…
We discuss how matrix-free/timestepper algorithms can efficiently be used with dynamic non-Newtonian fluid mechanics simulators in performing systematic stability/bifurcation analysis. The timestepper approach to bifurcation analysis of…