Related papers: Early Warning Signals for Bifurcations Embedded in…
The early prediction of tipping points, distinguished by sudden and catastrophic shifts from stable states, poses a challenging task that would enable us to assess the impending threat across natural and engineered systems. This threat…
The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…
Current early warning signs for tipping points often fail to distinguish between catastrophic shifts and less dramatic state changes, such as spatial pattern formation. This paper introduces a novel method that addresses this limitation by…
The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential…
This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts…
Many dynamical systems exhibit abrupt transitions or tipping as the control parameter is varied. In scenarios where the parameter is varied continuously, the rate of change of control parameter greatly affects the performance of early…
Early warning signals (EWSs) forewarn a sudden transition (or tipping) from a desirable state to an undesirable state. However, we observe that EWSs detect an impending tipping past bifurcation points when control parameters are varied…
Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress…
Model studies indicate that many climate subsystems, especially ecosystems, may be vulnerable to 'tipping': a 'catastrophic process' in which a system, driven by gradually changing external factors, abruptly transitions (or 'collapses')…
In several natural and engineering systems, changes in control parameters can trigger bifurcations that lead to sustained or growing periodic oscillations, indicating the onset of oscillatory instabilities. Such emergent behaviour often…
Detecting early warning indicators for abrupt dynamical transitions in complex systems or high-dimensional observation data is essential in many real-world applications, such as brain diseases, natural disasters, and engineering…
Developing methods for detecting tipping phenomena at an early stage is an important problem in various fields such as ecology, medicine, and economics. A tipping phenomenon is characterized by a rapid transition resulting from the…
The ability to reliably predict critical transitions in dynamical systems is a long-standing goal of diverse scientific communities. Previous work focused on early warning signals related to local bifurcations (critical slowing down) and…
Tipping points (TP) are often described as low-dimensional bifurcations, and are associated with early-warning signals (EWS) due to critical slowing down (CSD). CSD is an increase in amplitude and correlation of noise-induced fluctuations…
Bifurcations can cause dynamical systems with slowly varying parameters to transition to far-away attractors. The terms ``critical transition'' or ``tipping point'' have been used to describe this situation. Critical transitions have been…
The development of robust Early Warning Signals (EWS) is necessary to quantify the risk of crossing tipping points in the present-day climate change. Classically, EWS are statistical measures based on time series of climate state variables,…
Early-warning indicators (increase of autocorrelation and variance) are commonly applied to time series data to try and detect tipping points of real-world systems. The theory behind these indicators originates from approximating the…
In a nonautonomous nonlinear dynamical system, generic critical transitions (tipping points) are not limited to slow passage through fold bifurcations. They can also correspond to slow passage through other generic bifurcations, such as…
In this topical review, we present a brief overview of the different methods and measures to detect the occurrence of critical transitions in complex systems. We start by introducing the mechanisms that trigger critical transitions, and how…
Dynamical systems across the sciences, from electrical circuits to ecological networks, undergo qualitative and often catastrophic changes in behavior, called bifurcations, when their underlying parameters cross a threshold. Existing…