Related papers: Early Warning Signals for Bifurcations Embedded in…

Varying one of the governing parameters of a dynamical system may lead to a critical transition, where the new stable state is undesirable. In some cases, there is only a limited range of the bifurcation parameter that corresponds to that…

Tipping points (TP) are abrupt transitions between metastable states in complex systems, most often described by a bifurcation or crisis of a multistable system induced by a slowly changing control parameter. An avenue for predicting TPs in…

Predicting the future behaviour of complex systems exhibiting critical-like dynamics is often considered to be an intrinsically hard task. Here, we study the predictability of the depinning dynamics of elastic interfaces in random media…

We investigate how nonlinear behaviour (both of forcing in time and of the system itself) can affect the skill of early warning signals to predict tipping in (directionally) coupled bistable systems when using measures based on critical…

We propose a new hybrid modelling approach that combines a mechanistic model with a machine-learnt model to predict the limit cycle oscillations of physical systems with a Hopf bifurcation. The mechanistic model is an ordinary differential…

Early warning signals (EWSs) for complex dynamical systems aim to anticipate tipping points before they occur. While signals computed from time series data, such as temporal variance, are useful for this task, they are costly to obtain in…

Dryland vegetation ecosystems are known to be susceptible to critical transitions between alternative stable states when subjected to external forcing. Such transitions are often discussed through the framework of bifurcation theory, but…

Critical transitions occur in a wide variety of applications including mathematical biology, climate change, human physiology and economics. Therefore it is highly desirable to find early-warning signs. We show that it is possible to…

We study a two-dimensional low-dissipation dynamical system with a control parameter that is swept linearly in time across a transcritical bifurcation. We investigate the relaxation time of a perturbation applied to a variable of the system…

A data-driven model identification strategy is developed for dynamical systems near a supercritical Hopf bifurcation with nonautonomous inputs. This strategy draws on phase-amplitude reduction techniques, leveraging an analytical…

Tipping to an undesired state in the climate when a control parameter slowly approaches a critical value is a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions rely on detecting early warning signals (EWSs) in…

Stuck pipe incidents are one of the major challenges in drilling engineering,leading to massive time loss and additional costs.To address the limitations of insufficient long sequence modeling capability,the difficulty in accurately…

Stemming from physics and later applied to other fields such as ecology, the theory of critical transitions suggests that some regime shifts are preceded by statistical early warning signals. Reddit's r/place experiment, a large-scale…

Real-world complex systems such as the climate, ecosystems, stock markets, and combustion engines are prone to dynamical transitions from one state to another, with catastrophic consequences. State variables of such systems often exhibit…

One way to warn of forthcoming critical transitions in Earth system components is using observations to detect declining system stability. It has also been suggested to extrapolate such stability changes into the future and predict tipping…

We study fully three-dimensional droplets that slide down an incline by employing a thin-film equation that accounts for capillarity, wettability, and a lateral driving force in small-gradient (or long-wave) approximation. In particular, we…

Tipping points occur in diverse systems in various disciplines such as ecology, climate science, economy or engineering. Tipping points are critical thresholds in system parameters or state variables at which a tiny perturbation can lead to…

The percolation phase transition in complex network systems attracts much attention and has numerous applications in various research fields. Finite size effects smooth the transition and make it difficult to predict the critical point of…

A broad range of natural and social systems from human microbiome to financial markets can go through critical transitions, where the system suddenly collapses to another stable configuration. Critical transitions can be unexpected, with…

The basin entropy is a measure that quantifies, in a system that has two or more attractors, the predictability of a final state, as a function of the initial conditions. While the basin entropy has been demonstrated on a variety of…